Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

Aayan Afzal Khan, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Middle (11-40): average of 16.7, 6.9 below their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 674 balls faced.
Sample: 674 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 54.6, 17.6 below their strike rate of 72.2 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 674 balls faced.
Sample: 674 balls · high confidence
Chasing: average of 15.7, 7.9 below their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (-34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 292 balls faced.
Sample: 292 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 19.7, 3.9 below their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 415 balls faced.
Sample: 415 balls · medium confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 28, 4 below their balls per dismissal of 33 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 425 balls faced.
Sample: 425 balls · medium confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 18.3, 5.3 below their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 188 balls faced.
Sample: 188 balls · low confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 58.5, 13.7 below their strike rate of 72.2 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 188 balls faced.
Sample: 188 balls · low confidence
Nepal: average of 19.5, 4.1 below their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 205 balls faced.
Sample: 205 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Batting first: average of 29.2, 5.6 above their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 655 balls faced.
Sample: 655 balls · high confidence
Pace: average of 26.7, 3.1 above their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 495 balls faced.
Sample: 495 balls · high confidence
Death (41-50): average of 43.6, 20.0 above their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (+85%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -7%) — 261 balls faced.
Sample: 261 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 25.1, 1.5 above their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (+6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 517 balls faced.
Sample: 517 balls · high confidence
Death (41-50): strike rate of 116.9, 44.6 above their strike rate of 72.2 on all balls faced (+62%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: +25%) — 261 balls faced.
Sample: 261 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 29.5, 5.9 above their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 247 balls faced.
Sample: 247 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 98.2, 25.9 above their strike rate of 72.2 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 164 balls faced.
Sample: 164 balls · low confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 58, 25 above their balls per dismissal of 33 on all balls faced (+78%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 174 balls faced.
Sample: 174 balls · low confidence
Namibia: average of 49.0, 25.4 above their average of 23.6 on all balls faced (+108%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 172 balls faced.
Sample: 172 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Zimbabwe: average of 72.0, 44.4 above their average of 27.6 on all balls bowled (+161%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 246 balls bowled.
Sample: 246 balls · low confidence
Netherlands: average of 33.8, 6.2 above their average of 27.6 on all balls bowled (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 322 balls bowled.
Sample: 322 balls · low confidence
United States of America: average of 42.4, 14.8 above their average of 27.6 on all balls bowled (+54%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: +10%) — 246 balls bowled.
Sample: 246 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

United Arab Emirates: average of 22.4, 5.2 below their average of 27.6 on all balls bowled (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 617 balls bowled.
Sample: 617 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 22.4, 5.2 below their average of 27.6 on all balls bowled (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 617 balls bowled.
Sample: 617 balls · medium confidence
Nepal: average of 22.9, 4.7 below their average of 27.6 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 519 balls bowled.
Sample: 519 balls · medium confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Slow left-arm orthodox	188	110	6	18.33	58.51	62.8%	5.3%
Right-arm medium	173	142	6	23.67	82.08	54.3%	9.8%
Right-arm fast-medium	164	161	6	26.83	98.17	51.2%	14.6%
Off break	120	65	3	21.67	54.17	64.2%	3.3%
Leg break	107	61	3	20.33	57.01	60.7%	3.7%
Left-arm fast-medium	63	59	2	29.50	93.65	52.4%	12.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	674	368	22	16.73

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,968	1,374	50	27.48	4.19	39.4	58.5%	6.1%
Left-handed batters	350	267	8	33.38	4.58	43.8	58.6%	7.4%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,651	1,134	39	29.08	4.12	42.3	57.0%	5.6%
Powerplay (1-10)	522	338	10	33.80	3.89	52.2	68.2%	8.0%
Death (41-50)	193	212	12	17.67	6.59	16.1	42.0%	8.3%