Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

AC Agar, Men's ODI

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 67.5, 15.5 below their strike rate of 83.0 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 271 balls faced.
Sample: 271 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 17.9, 6.9 below their average of 24.8 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 170 balls faced.
Sample: 170 balls · low confidence

Chasing: average of 28.4, 3.7 above their average of 24.8 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 247 balls faced.
Sample: 247 balls · medium confidence
Pace: average of 32.8, 8.1 above their average of 24.8 on all balls faced (+33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 218 balls faced.
Sample: 218 balls · low confidence

England: average of 65.3, 19.7 above their average of 45.6 on all balls bowled (+43%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 420 balls bowled.
Sample: 420 balls · medium confidence

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 47.4, 4.9 below their strike rate of 52.3 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 948 balls bowled.
Sample: 948 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 38.4, 7.3 below their average of 45.6 on all balls bowled (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 865 balls bowled.
Sample: 865 balls · high confidence
England: average of 39.5, 6.1 below their average of 45.6 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 264 balls bowled.
Sample: 264 balls · low confidence

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast	126	105	3	35.00	83.33	50.8%	9.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	271	183	6	30.50	67.53	57.9%	7.0%
Death (41-50)	117	139	7	19.86	118.80	26.5%	11.1%

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	865	729	19	38.37	5.06	45.5	44.5%	6.6%
Left-handed batters	233	229	2	114.50	5.90	116.5	46.4%	11.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	948	815	20	40.75	5.16	47.4	43.9%	7.1%