Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

AD Russell, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Away from home: average of 24.2, 4.5 below their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 495 balls faced.
Sample: 495 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 25.8, 2.9 below their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 338 balls faced.
Sample: 338 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 30.8, 2.1 above their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 456 balls faced.
Sample: 456 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 42.2, 13.5 above their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (+47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 299 balls faced.
Sample: 299 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 42.2, 13.5 above their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (+47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 299 balls faced.
Sample: 299 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 37.8, 9.1 above their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (+32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 233 balls faced.
Sample: 233 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 36.8, 8.1 above their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 239 balls faced.
Sample: 239 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 145.9, 15.7 above their strike rate of 130.2 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 233 balls faced.
Sample: 233 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 50.4, 18.2 above their strike rate of 32.2 on all balls bowled (+57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 1362 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,362 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 36.3, 4.9 above their average of 31.4 on all balls bowled (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 1543 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,543 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 33.8, 2.3 above their average of 31.4 on all balls bowled (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1593 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,593 balls · high confidence
Death (41-50): economy of 8.93, 3.08 above their economy of 5.86 on all balls bowled (+53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +19%) — 401 balls bowled.
Sample: 401 balls · medium confidence
Bangladesh: average of 47.9, 16.4 above their average of 31.4 on all balls bowled (+52%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 354 balls bowled.
Sample: 354 balls · low confidence
Bangladesh: average of 46.2, 14.8 above their average of 31.4 on all balls bowled (+47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 264 balls bowled.
Sample: 264 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Middle (11-40): economy of 5.18, 0.68 below their economy of 5.86 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 1362 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,362 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 23.7, 7.7 below their average of 31.4 on all balls bowled (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 711 balls bowled.
Sample: 711 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 23.7, 7.7 below their average of 31.4 on all balls bowled (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 711 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	233	340	9	37.78	145.92	35.2%	21.0%
Off break	170	199	4	49.75	117.06	50.0%	15.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	93	88	8	11.00	94.62	55.9%	11.8%
Right-arm fast	78	117	4	29.25	150.00	39.7%	23.1%
Leg break	75	100	3	33.33	133.33	57.3%	20.0%
Right-arm medium	61	72	4	18.00	118.03	45.9%	18.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	516	599	21	28.52

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,593	1,553	46	33.76	5.85	34.6	51.2%	11.2%
Left-handed batters	661	647	24	26.96	5.87	27.5	51.3%	11.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,362	1,175	27	43.52	5.18	50.4	51.5%	8.2%
Powerplay (1-10)	491	428	14	30.57	5.23	35.1	62.7%	12.8%
Death (41-50)	401	597	29	20.59	8.93	13.8	36.4%	19.7%