Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

AN Kelly, Women's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 51.6, 14.6 below their strike rate of 66.2 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 397 balls faced.
Sample: 397 balls · medium confidence
Chasing: average of 11.9, 4.4 below their average of 16.3 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 243 balls faced.
Sample: 243 balls · medium confidence
Ireland: average of 14.2, 2.1 below their average of 16.3 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +16%) — 259 balls faced.
Sample: 259 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 14.2, 2.1 below their average of 16.3 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 259 balls faced.
Sample: 259 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 50.0, 16.2 below their strike rate of 66.2 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 188 balls faced.
Sample: 188 balls · low confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 18, 7 below their balls per dismissal of 25 on all balls faced (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 211 balls faced.
Sample: 211 balls · low confidence
Off break: average of 11.8, 4.6 below their average of 16.3 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 188 balls faced.
Sample: 188 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Batting first: average of 21.4, 5.1 above their average of 16.3 on all balls faced (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 397 balls faced.
Sample: 397 balls · medium confidence
Middle (11-40): average of 22.8, 6.5 above their average of 16.3 on all balls faced (+40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 397 balls faced.
Sample: 397 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 65.6, 27.2 above their strike rate of 38.4 on all balls bowled (+71%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 984 balls bowled.
Sample: 984 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 36.8, 5.3 above their average of 31.5 on all balls bowled (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1100 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,100 balls · high confidence
Powerplay (1-10): strike rate of 97.5, 59.1 above their strike rate of 38.4 on all balls bowled (+154%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 390 balls bowled.
Sample: 390 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 39.5, 8.0 above their average of 31.5 on all balls bowled (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 368 balls bowled.
Sample: 368 balls · medium confidence
Pakistan: average of 44.3, 12.8 above their average of 31.5 on all balls bowled (+41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 299 balls bowled.
Sample: 299 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: average of 29.7, 1.8 below their average of 31.5 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 1356 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,356 balls · high confidence
Powerplay (1-10): economy of 3.66, 1.26 below their economy of 4.92 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 390 balls bowled.
Sample: 390 balls · medium confidence
Death (41-50): strike rate of 13.7, 24.8 below their strike rate of 38.4 on all balls bowled (-64%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -21%) — 355 balls bowled.
Sample: 355 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Off break	188	94	8	11.75	50.00	61.2%	3.7%
Slow left-arm orthodox	140	84	5	16.80	60.00	59.3%	5.0%
Right-arm medium	120	87	6	14.50	72.50	47.5%	4.2%
Leg break	102	68	4	17.00	66.67	52.0%	4.9%
Right-arm fast-medium	83	85	3	28.33	102.41	49.4%	14.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	397	205	9	22.78	51.64	65.5%	5.0%
Death (41-50)	241	219	16	13.69

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,356	1,098	37	29.68	4.86	36.6	55.4%	9.2%
Left-handed batters	368	316	8	39.50	5.15	46.0	53.3%	9.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	984	807	15	53.80	4.92	65.6	54.6%	9.5%
Powerplay (1-10)	390	238	4	59.50	3.66	97.5	69.0%	7.4%
Death (41-50)	355	373	26	14.35	6.30	13.7	40.0%	11.0%