Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

AR McBrine, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Death (41-50): average of 16.1, 8.4 below their average of 24.5 on all balls faced (-34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: -7%) — 234 balls faced.
Sample: 234 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 22.6, 1.9 below their average of 24.5 on all balls faced (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 382 balls faced.
Sample: 382 balls · medium confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 19, 13 below their balls per dismissal of 32 on all balls faced (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 65.4, 11.2 below their strike rate of 76.7 on all balls faced (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 159 balls faced.
Sample: 159 balls · low confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 19.0, 5.5 below their average of 24.5 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 162 balls faced.
Sample: 162 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 40, 8 above their balls per dismissal of 32 on all balls faced (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 558 balls faced.
Sample: 558 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 41.2, 16.8 above their average of 24.5 on all balls faced (+68%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 252 balls faced.
Sample: 252 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 40.4, 15.9 above their average of 24.5 on all balls faced (+65%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 288 balls faced.
Sample: 288 balls · medium confidence
Powerplay (1-10): average of 31.7, 7.2 above their average of 24.5 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 308 balls faced.
Sample: 308 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

At home: average of 54.8, 14.8 above their average of 40.0 on all balls bowled (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 840 balls bowled.
Sample: 840 balls · high confidence
Ireland: average of 54.8, 14.8 above their average of 40.0 on all balls bowled (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 840 balls bowled.
Sample: 840 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 5.18, 0.33 above their economy of 4.85 on all balls bowled (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1442 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,442 balls · high confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 42.6, 2.6 above their average of 40.0 on all balls bowled (+6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 846 balls bowled.
Sample: 846 balls · high confidence
England: average of 94.7, 54.7 above their average of 40.0 on all balls bowled (+137%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 282 balls bowled.
Sample: 282 balls · low confidence
Bangladesh: average of 74.7, 34.7 above their average of 40.0 on all balls bowled (+87%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 240 balls bowled.
Sample: 240 balls · low confidence
Scotland: average of 59.7, 19.7 above their average of 40.0 on all balls bowled (+49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 252 balls bowled.
Sample: 252 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: economy of 4.62, 0.22 below their economy of 4.85 on all balls bowled (-5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 2069 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,069 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 37.2, 2.8 below their average of 40.0 on all balls bowled (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 2526 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	371	301	13	23.15	81.13	58.8%	11.1%
Slow left-arm orthodox	162	114	6	19.00	70.37	59.3%	6.8%
Right-arm fast	159	104	4	26.00	65.41	67.9%	10.7%
Off break	141	106	3	35.33	75.18	48.9%	5.7%
Right-arm medium	106	91	4	22.75	85.85	48.1%	9.4%
Left-arm fast-medium	88	76	2	38.00	86.36	50.0%	9.1%
Leg break	67	39	2	19.50	58.21	58.2%	3.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,069	1,594	42	37.95	4.62	49.3	51.4%	6.3%
Left-handed batters	1,442	1,245	29	42.93	5.18	49.7	51.6%	9.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	3,072	2,443	54	45.24	4.77	56.9	51.2%	7.1%
Death (41-50)	228	236	9	26.22	6.21	25.3	46.1%	10.5%
Powerplay (1-10)	216	161	8	20.13	4.47	27.0	61.6%	9.7%

Middle (11-40)	576	458	16	28.63	79.51	53.0%	8.7%
Powerplay (1-10)	308	190	6	31.67	61.69	71.8%	10.4%
Death (41-50)	234	209	13	16.08	89.32	46.2%	7.7%