Plans built only from the evidence.

Spin: average of 15.3, 5.1 below their average of 20.5 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 179 balls faced.

Sample: 179 balls · low confidence

Batting first: average of 23.5, 3.1 above their average of 20.5 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 327 balls faced.

Sample: 327 balls · medium confidence

New Zealand: average of 25.3, 4.8 above their average of 20.5 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +0%) — 239 balls faced.

Sample: 239 balls · medium confidence

Pace: average of 32.0, 11.5 above their average of 20.5 on all balls faced (+56%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 171 balls faced.

Sample: 171 balls · low confidence

Middle (11-40): average of 27.8, 7.3 above their average of 20.5 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 181 balls faced.

Sample: 181 balls · low confidence