Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

BJ McMullen, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Powerplay (1-10): strike rate of 74.7, 18.6 below their strike rate of 93.3 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 502 balls faced.
Sample: 502 balls · high confidence
Nepal: average of 29.3, 13.2 below their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (-31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 241 balls faced.
Sample: 241 balls · medium confidence
United Arab Emirates: average of 33.2, 9.3 below their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence
Nepal: average of 32.0, 10.5 below their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 211 balls faced.
Sample: 211 balls · low confidence
Right-arm medium: average of 38.0, 4.5 below their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 222 balls faced.
Sample: 222 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 86.8, 44.3 above their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (+104%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 455 balls faced.
Sample: 455 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 98.5, 5.2 above their strike rate of 93.3 on all balls faced (+6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1134 balls faced.
Sample: 1,134 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 56.8, 14.3 above their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (+34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 696 balls faced.
Sample: 696 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 45.5, 3.1 above their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1046 balls faced.
Sample: 1,046 balls · high confidence
Namibia: average of 120.5, 78.0 above their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (+184%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 246 balls faced.
Sample: 246 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 53.0, 10.5 above their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 349 balls faced.
Sample: 349 balls · medium confidence
Namibia: average of 54.0, 11.5 above their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (+27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 308 balls faced.
Sample: 308 balls · medium confidence
United States of America: average of 79.3, 36.8 above their average of 42.5 on all balls faced (+87%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 214 balls faced.
Sample: 214 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Nepal: average of 29.6, 7.8 above their average of 21.9 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 443 balls bowled.
Sample: 443 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 29.1, 7.2 above their average of 21.9 on all balls bowled (+33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 369 balls bowled.
Sample: 369 balls · medium confidence
Netherlands: average of 32.1, 10.2 above their average of 21.9 on all balls bowled (+47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 294 balls bowled.
Sample: 294 balls · low confidence
Nepal: average of 40.5, 18.6 above their average of 21.9 on all balls bowled (+85%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 318 balls bowled.
Sample: 318 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Powerplay (1-10): economy of 3.90, 0.65 below their economy of 4.55 on all balls bowled (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 1086 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,086 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 27.2, 1.6 below their strike rate of 28.8 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 707 balls bowled.
Sample: 707 balls · medium confidence
Namibia: average of 18.2, 3.7 below their average of 21.9 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: +0%) — 390 balls bowled.
Sample: 390 balls · medium confidence
Namibia: average of 15.2, 6.6 below their average of 21.9 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 300 balls bowled.
Sample: 300 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Slow left-arm orthodox	455	434	5	86.80	95.38	48.8%	10.5%
Right-arm fast-medium	349	318	6	53.00	91.12	61.6%	14.0%
Right-arm medium	222	228	6	38.00	102.70	48.2%	13.1%
Left-arm fast-medium	187	173	3	57.67	92.51	54.5%	13.4%
Off break	168	174	2	87.00	103.57	44.6%	13.7%
Right-arm fast	88	44	3	14.67	50.00	69.3%	4.5%
Leg break	73	74	5	14.80	101.37	43.8%	11.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,506	1,144	56	20.43	4.56	26.9	62.8%	9.8%
Left-handed batters	369	291	10	29.10	4.73	36.9	63.1%	8.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Powerplay (1-10)	1,086	706	37	19.08	3.90	29.4	71.8%	9.5%
Middle (11-40)	707	555	26	21.35	4.71	27.2	57.6%	8.5%
Death (41-50)	168	226	5	45.20	8.07	33.6	29.8%	13.7%

Middle (11-40)	1,134	1,117	25	44.68	98.50	49.3%	12.2%
Powerplay (1-10)	502	375	9	41.67	74.70	65.1%	11.0%