Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

CD McMillan, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 74.2, 8.6 below their strike rate of 82.8 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 454 balls faced.
Sample: 454 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 22.5, 7.2 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 454 balls faced.
Sample: 454 balls · high confidence
Batting first: average of 26.4, 3.3 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 530 balls faced.
Sample: 530 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 34, 2 below their balls per dismissal of 36 on all balls faced (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 572 balls faced.
Sample: 572 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 17.3, 12.4 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 213 balls faced.
Sample: 213 balls · low confidence
Powerplay (1-10): strike rate of 47.0, 35.8 below their strike rate of 82.8 on all balls faced (-43%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 168 balls faced.
Sample: 168 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 67.7, 15.2 below their strike rate of 82.8 on all balls faced (-18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence
Powerplay (1-10): average of 15.8, 13.9 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 168 balls faced.
Sample: 168 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 18.8, 10.9 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence
India: average of 23.7, 6.0 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 30% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 198 balls faced.
Sample: 198 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Chasing: average of 32.6, 2.9 above their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 833 balls faced.
Sample: 833 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 33.5, 3.8 above their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 411 balls faced.
Sample: 411 balls · medium confidence
Death (41-50): average of 40.7, 11.0 above their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -7%) — 162 balls faced.
Sample: 162 balls · low confidence
Death (41-50): strike rate of 150.6, 67.8 above their strike rate of 82.8 on all balls faced (+82%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: +25%) — 162 balls faced.
Sample: 162 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 68.0, 26.2 above their strike rate of 41.8 on all balls bowled (+63%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 272 balls bowled.
Sample: 272 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Away from home: average of 32.9, 5.8 below their average of 38.6 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 308 balls bowled.
Sample: 308 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	454	337	15	22.47	74.23	59.9%	8.1%
Right-arm medium	217	193	5	38.60	88.94	54.8%	11.1%
Off break	183	157	5	31.40	85.79	44.8%	6.6%
Right-arm fast	167	113	6	18.83	67.66	68.3%	10.2%
Slow left-arm orthodox	123	128	5	25.60	104.07	43.1%	9.8%
Left-arm fast-medium	114	92	1	92.00	80.70	59.6%	10.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,033	806	27	29.85

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	311	277	7	39.57	5.34	44.4	47.9%	7.7%
Left-handed batters	149	148	4	37.00	5.96	37.3	43.6%	10.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	272	241	4	60.25	5.32	68.0	48.9%	8.8%
Death (41-50)	185	180	7	25.71	5.84	26.4	43.2%	8.6%