Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

CJ Anderson, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Away from home: average of 15.2, 13.0 below their average of 28.3 on all balls faced (-46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 282 balls faced.
Sample: 282 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 19, 7 below their balls per dismissal of 26 on all balls faced (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 383 balls faced.
Sample: 383 balls · medium confidence
Batting first: average of 25.8, 2.4 below their average of 28.3 on all balls faced (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 511 balls faced.
Sample: 511 balls · high confidence
Death (41-50): average of 18.2, 10.1 below their average of 28.3 on all balls faced (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: -7%) — 190 balls faced.
Sample: 190 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

At home: average of 38.3, 10.1 above their average of 28.3 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 730 balls faced.
Sample: 730 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 38, 12 above their balls per dismissal of 26 on all balls faced (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 532 balls faced.
Sample: 532 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 38.3, 10.1 above their average of 28.3 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 730 balls faced.
Sample: 730 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): average of 34.0, 5.7 above their average of 28.3 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 798 balls faced.
Sample: 798 balls · high confidence
Chasing: average of 31.8, 3.5 above their average of 28.3 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 501 balls faced.
Sample: 501 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 47.5, 19.2 above their average of 28.3 on all balls faced (+68%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 260 balls faced.
Sample: 260 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 124.0, 15.1 above their strike rate of 108.9 on all balls faced (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 225 balls faced.
Sample: 225 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Right-handed batters: average of 30.6, 5.4 above their average of 25.2 on all balls bowled (+21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1070 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,070 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 6.75, 0.67 above their economy of 6.08 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 375 balls bowled.
Sample: 375 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 31.8, 6.6 above their average of 25.2 on all balls bowled (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 503 balls bowled.
Sample: 503 balls · medium confidence
Pakistan: average of 39.9, 14.6 above their average of 25.2 on all balls bowled (+58%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 264 balls bowled.
Sample: 264 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

New Zealand: average of 22.7, 2.5 below their average of 25.2 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 942 balls bowled.
Sample: 942 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 17.6, 7.7 below their average of 25.2 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 375 balls bowled.
Sample: 375 balls · medium confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	334	392	13	30.15	117.37	48.5%	15.9%
Off break	225	279	9	31.00	124.00	43.1%	15.6%
Right-arm fast	134	133	8	16.63	99.25	56.0%	13.4%
Slow left-arm orthodox	90	103	3	34.33	114.44	42.2%	13.3%
Leg break	79	59	1	59.00	74.68	54.4%	7.6%
Right-arm medium	62	72	1	72.00	116.13	35.5%	14.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	798	816	24	34.00

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,070	1,042	34	30.65	5.84	31.5	48.8%	11.0%
Left-handed batters	375	422	24	17.58	6.75	15.6	43.5%	12.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,112	1,062	39	27.23	5.73	28.5	48.8%	10.6%
Death (41-50)	285	372	17	21.88	7.83	16.8	38.6%	15.8%