Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

CL Cairns, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Middle (11-40): average of 31.1, 3.2 below their average of 34.3 on all balls faced (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 613 balls faced.
Sample: 613 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 76.2, 14.2 below their strike rate of 90.4 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 613 balls faced.
Sample: 613 balls · high confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 32, 6 below their balls per dismissal of 38 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 353 balls faced.
Sample: 353 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 30.2, 4.1 below their average of 34.3 on all balls faced (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 349 balls faced.
Sample: 349 balls · medium confidence
Batting first: average of 30.8, 3.5 below their average of 34.3 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 403 balls faced.
Sample: 403 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 27.5, 6.8 below their average of 34.3 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 177 balls faced.
Sample: 177 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 37.0, 2.7 above their average of 34.3 on all balls faced (+8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 525 balls faced.
Sample: 525 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 36.8, 2.4 above their average of 34.3 on all balls faced (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 697 balls faced.
Sample: 697 balls · high confidence
Chasing: average of 38.2, 3.8 above their average of 34.3 on all balls faced (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 471 balls faced.
Sample: 471 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 56, 18 above their balls per dismissal of 38 on all balls faced (+48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 393 balls faced.
Sample: 393 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 104.1, 13.7 above their strike rate of 90.4 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 242 balls faced.
Sample: 242 balls · medium confidence
Pakistan: average of 66.7, 32.3 above their average of 34.3 on all balls faced (+94%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 198 balls faced.
Sample: 198 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Left-handed batters: average of 52.2, 13.4 above their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (+35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 382 balls bowled.
Sample: 382 balls · medium confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 59.5, 13.3 above their strike rate of 46.2 on all balls bowled (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 714 balls bowled.
Sample: 714 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: average of 33.0, 5.8 below their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 542 balls bowled.
Sample: 542 balls · medium confidence
Middle (11-40): economy of 4.66, 0.37 below their economy of 5.03 on all balls bowled (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 714 balls bowled.
Sample: 714 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 33.7, 5.1 below their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 348 balls bowled.
Sample: 348 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	242	252	7	36.00	104.13	47.9%	13.2%
Off break	138	92	6	15.33	66.67	51.4%	4.3%
Right-arm medium	116	118	2	59.00	101.72	42.2%	11.2%
Slow left-arm orthodox	114	73	1	73.00	64.04	55.3%	2.6%
Right-arm fast	106	95	4	23.75	89.62	58.5%	13.2%
Leg break	81	88	2	44.00	108.64	50.6%	12.3%
Left-arm fast-medium	61	53	1	53.00	86.89	49.2%	9.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	542	462	14	33.00	5.11	38.7	57.6%	10.3%
Left-handed batters	382	313	6	52.17	4.92	63.7	55.0%	9.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	714	555	12	46.25	4.66	59.5	60.9%	9.7%
Death (41-50)	144	175	6	29.17	7.29	24.0	27.8%	11.1%

Middle (11-40)	613	467	15	31.13	76.18	51.7%	7.7%
Death (41-50)	170	235	7	33.57	138.24	41.2%	17.1%
Powerplay (1-10)	91	88	1	88.00	96.70	58.2%	12.1%