Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

DJ Willey, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 80.6, 14.6 below their strike rate of 95.2 on all balls faced (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 381 balls faced.
Sample: 381 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 114.1, 18.9 above their strike rate of 95.2 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 283 balls faced.
Sample: 283 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 32.3, 7.1 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 283 balls faced.
Sample: 283 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 33, 7 above their balls per dismissal of 26 on all balls faced (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 234 balls faced.
Sample: 234 balls · medium confidence
Middle (11-40): average of 30.7, 5.5 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 30% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 381 balls faced.
Sample: 381 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 38.0, 12.8 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+51%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 187 balls faced.
Sample: 187 balls · low confidence
India: average of 32.4, 7.2 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 151 balls faced.
Sample: 151 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Left-handed batters: economy of 5.97, 0.47 above their economy of 5.49 on all balls bowled (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1048 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,048 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 37.2, 8.2 above their average of 29.0 on all balls bowled (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 1048 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,048 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 41.0, 9.3 above their strike rate of 31.7 on all balls bowled (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 820 balls bowled.
Sample: 820 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 36.4, 7.4 above their average of 29.0 on all balls bowled (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 516 balls bowled.
Sample: 516 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 91.0, 62.0 above their average of 29.0 on all balls bowled (+213%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 269 balls bowled.
Sample: 269 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: average of 25.8, 3.2 below their average of 29.0 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 2122 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,122 balls · high confidence
England: average of 27.4, 1.6 below their average of 29.0 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1700 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,700 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 21.0, 8.0 below their average of 29.0 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 472 balls bowled.
Sample: 472 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 24.7, 4.3 below their average of 29.0 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 384 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	283	323	10	32.30	114.13	47.7%	15.9%
Right-arm fast	115	120	4	30.00	104.35	45.2%	13.0%
Leg break	65	39	1	39.00	60.00	53.8%	4.6%
Slow left-arm orthodox	61	31	0	–	50.82	65.6%	3.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	381	307	10	30.70	80.58	59.3%	10.8%
Death (41-50)	296	340	16	21.25	114.86	38.2%	12.5%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,122	1,861	72	25.85	5.26	29.5	54.1%	9.8%
Left-handed batters	1,048	1,042	28	37.21	5.97	37.4	52.0%	13.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Powerplay (1-10)	1,800	1,487	48	30.98	4.96	37.5	62.5%	11.6%
Middle (11-40)	820	745	20	37.25	5.45	41.0	44.9%	8.3%
Death (41-50)	550	671	32	20.97	7.32	17.2	36.4%	12.7%