Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

HK Matthews, Women's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

South Africa: average of 24.3, 19.2 below their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (-44%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 616 balls faced.
Sample: 616 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 28.5, 15.0 below their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 983 balls faced.
Sample: 983 balls · high confidence
Leg break: strike rate of 77.7, 5.5 below their strike rate of 83.2 on all balls faced (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 484 balls faced.
Sample: 484 balls · high confidence
Pace: average of 38.7, 4.9 below their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 2366 balls faced.
Sample: 2,366 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 77.7, 5.5 below their strike rate of 83.2 on all balls faced (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 547 balls faced.
Sample: 547 balls · high confidence
England: average of 22.4, 21.2 below their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (-49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 357 balls faced.
Sample: 357 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 30.7, 12.9 below their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +0%) — 378 balls faced.
Sample: 378 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 32.9, 10.7 below their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 356 balls faced.
Sample: 356 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 25.0, 18.6 below their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (-43%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 304 balls faced.
Sample: 304 balls · medium confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 38.0, 5.6 below their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 266 balls faced.
Sample: 266 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Leg break: average of 125.3, 81.8 above their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (+188%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 484 balls faced.
Sample: 484 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 54.2, 10.6 above their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1723 balls faced.
Sample: 1,723 balls · high confidence
Right-arm medium: strike rate of 91.4, 8.1 above their strike rate of 83.2 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 1253 balls faced.
Sample: 1,253 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 77.4, 33.9 above their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (+78%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +17%) — 740 balls faced.
Sample: 740 balls · high confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 108.7, 65.1 above their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (+149%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 304 balls faced.
Sample: 304 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 46.3, 2.7 above their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (+6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 2592 balls faced.
Sample: 2,592 balls · high confidence
Ireland: average of 132.5, 88.9 above their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (+204%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +16%) — 226 balls faced.
Sample: 226 balls · medium confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 108.7, 65.1 above their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (+149%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +45%) — 304 balls faced.
Sample: 304 balls · medium confidence
Ireland: average of 80.2, 36.6 above their average of 43.6 on all balls faced (+84%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +25%) — 365 balls faced.
Sample: 365 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

South Africa: average of 36.9, 11.6 above their average of 25.4 on all balls bowled (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 755 balls bowled.
Sample: 755 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 33.2, 7.9 above their average of 25.4 on all balls bowled (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 503 balls bowled.
Sample: 503 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Pakistan: average of 14.9, 10.4 below their average of 25.4 on all balls bowled (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 595 balls bowled.
Sample: 595 balls · medium confidence
Pakistan: average of 17.7, 7.7 below their average of 25.4 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 648 balls bowled.
Sample: 648 balls · medium confidence
Ireland: average of 14.0, 11.4 below their average of 25.4 on all balls bowled (-45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 350 balls bowled.
Sample: 350 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm medium	1,253	1,145	24	47.71	91.38	54.9%	13.1%
Right-arm fast-medium	983	799	28	28.54	81.28	60.0%	12.0%
Slow left-arm orthodox	692	554	13	42.62	80.06	57.5%	11.3%
Off break	547	425	9	47.22	77.70	50.6%	7.7%
Leg break	484	376	3	125.33	77.69	50.6%	7.6%
Left-arm medium	92	76	1	76.00	82.61	67.4%	16.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	2,308	1,883	41	45.93

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,292	2,384	95	25.09	4.35	34.7	56.7%	7.0%
Left-handed batters	796	552	21	26.29	4.16	37.9	60.2%	7.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	2,905	2,063	76	27.14	4.26	38.2	57.3%	7.0%
Powerplay (1-10)	659	419	16	26.19	3.81	41.2	65.4%	7.6%
Death (41-50)	533	461	24	19.21	5.19	22.2	48.0%	7.9%