Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

JA Morkel, Men's ODI

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 78.2, 21.4 below their strike rate of 99.6 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 403 balls faced.
Sample: 403 balls · medium confidence
Batting first: average of 20.7, 3.6 below their average of 24.3 on all balls faced (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 407 balls faced.
Sample: 407 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 21.8, 2.6 below their average of 24.3 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 341 balls faced.
Sample: 341 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 81.2, 18.4 below their strike rate of 99.6 on all balls faced (-18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 154 balls faced.
Sample: 154 balls · low confidence

Away from home: average of 30.5, 6.1 above their average of 24.3 on all balls faced (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 337 balls faced.
Sample: 337 balls · medium confidence
Chasing: average of 31.1, 6.8 above their average of 24.3 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 301 balls faced.
Sample: 301 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 113.2, 13.6 above their strike rate of 99.6 on all balls faced (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 205 balls faced.
Sample: 205 balls · low confidence

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 57.0, 15.4 above their strike rate of 41.6 on all balls bowled (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 1368 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,368 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 46.3, 7.5 above their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 956 balls bowled.
Sample: 956 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 74.2, 35.4 above their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (+91%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 378 balls bowled.
Sample: 378 balls · medium confidence

Away from home: average of 32.5, 6.3 below their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 779 balls bowled.
Sample: 779 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 18.9, 19.9 below their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (-51%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 256 balls bowled.
Sample: 256 balls · low confidence
Pakistan: average of 24.1, 14.7 below their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (-38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 285 balls bowled.
Sample: 285 balls · low confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 25.8, 13.0 below their average of 38.8 on all balls bowled (-33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 324 balls bowled.
Sample: 324 balls · low confidence
Death (41-50): strike rate of 18.8, 22.8 below their strike rate of 41.6 on all balls bowled (-55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: -23%) — 319 balls bowled.
Sample: 319 balls · low confidence

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	205	232	9	25.78	113.17	47.3%	14.6%
Off break	154	125	4	31.25	81.17	51.3%	9.1%
Right-arm medium	92	93	4	23.25	101.09	44.6%	12.0%
Slow left-arm orthodox	90	62	4	15.50	68.89	62.2%	7.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	403	315	11	28.64	78.16	56.8%	8.4%
Death (41-50)	300	389	18	21.61	129.67	36.7%	17.3%

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,391	1,304	35	37.26	5.62	39.7	49.5%	9.8%
Left-handed batters	440	403	9	44.78	5.50	48.9	47.0%	9.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,368	1,214	24	50.58	5.32	57.0	50.1%	8.7%
Death (41-50)	319	342	17	20.12	6.43	18.8	38.6%	10.3%
Powerplay (1-10)	144	151	3	50.33	6.29	48.0	59.7%	17.4%