Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

JJ Smit, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 63.5, 12.3 below their strike rate of 75.9 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1105 balls faced.
Sample: 1,105 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 28, 3 below their balls per dismissal of 31 on all balls faced (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 672 balls faced.
Sample: 672 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 21.6, 1.6 below their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 835 balls faced.
Sample: 835 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 21.7, 1.5 below their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 582 balls faced.
Sample: 582 balls · high confidence
Off break: average of 14.8, 8.4 below their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 191 balls faced.
Sample: 191 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 26.1, 2.9 above their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 578 balls faced.
Sample: 578 balls · high confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 40, 10 above their balls per dismissal of 31 on all balls faced (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 521 balls faced.
Sample: 521 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 36.1, 12.9 above their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (+56%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 420 balls faced.
Sample: 420 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm medium: average of 41.4, 18.2 above their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (+79%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 242 balls faced.
Sample: 242 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm medium: strike rate of 85.5, 9.7 above their strike rate of 75.9 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 242 balls faced.
Sample: 242 balls · medium confidence
Oman: average of 31.5, 8.3 above their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 385 balls faced.
Sample: 385 balls · medium confidence
Death (41-50): strike rate of 116.9, 41.0 above their strike rate of 75.9 on all balls faced (+54%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +25%) — 332 balls faced.
Sample: 332 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 87.7, 11.8 above their strike rate of 75.9 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 203 balls faced.
Sample: 203 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Powerplay (1-10): strike rate of 52.7, 21.3 above their strike rate of 31.4 on all balls bowled (+68%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +15%) — 1212 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,212 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 43.3, 21.1 above their average of 22.2 on all balls bowled (+95%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 378 balls bowled.
Sample: 378 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 4.93, 0.70 above their economy of 4.23 on all balls bowled (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 488 balls bowled.
Sample: 488 balls · medium confidence
Death (41-50): economy of 7.17, 2.94 above their economy of 4.23 on all balls bowled (+69%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +19%) — 369 balls bowled.
Sample: 369 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 23.9, 1.8 above their average of 22.2 on all balls bowled (+8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 1201 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,201 balls · high confidence
United Arab Emirates: average of 37.3, 15.2 above their average of 22.2 on all balls bowled (+68%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 276 balls bowled.
Sample: 276 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 27.3, 4.1 below their strike rate of 31.4 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 902 balls bowled.
Sample: 902 balls · high confidence
Powerplay (1-10): economy of 3.39, 0.84 below their economy of 4.23 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 1212 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,212 balls · high confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Slow left-arm orthodox	499	344	14	24.57	68.94	64.1%	7.2%
Right-arm medium	242	207	5	41.40	85.54	53.7%	9.5%
Right-arm fast-medium	203	178	7	25.43	87.68	51.7%	9.4%
Off break	191	133	9	14.78	69.63	58.6%	6.3%
Leg break	145	107	4	26.75	73.79	55.2%	6.9%
Left-arm fast-medium	97	74	6	12.33	76.29	51.5%	8.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,105	702	29	24.21

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,852	1,269	60	21.15	4.11	30.9	61.9%	7.0%
Left-handed batters	488	401	15	26.73	4.93	32.5	56.6%	8.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Powerplay (1-10)	1,212	685	23	29.78	3.39	52.7	71.7%	6.8%
Middle (11-40)	902	626	33	18.97	4.16	27.3	58.9%	6.7%
Death (41-50)	369	441	23	19.17	7.17	16.0	34.4%	10.8%