Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

JWM Dalrymple, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 57.5, 15.0 below their strike rate of 72.5 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 468 balls faced.
Sample: 468 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 12.2, 8.1 below their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (-40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 287 balls faced.
Sample: 287 balls · medium confidence
Pace: average of 15.1, 5.2 below their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 311 balls faced.
Sample: 311 balls · medium confidence
Chasing: average of 16.4, 3.9 below their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 229 balls faced.
Sample: 229 balls · medium confidence
Death (41-50): average of 13.6, 6.7 below their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (-33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: -7%) — 204 balls faced.
Sample: 204 balls · low confidence
Off break: strike rate of 62.0, 10.5 below their strike rate of 72.5 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 171 balls faced.
Sample: 171 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Middle (11-40): average of 33.6, 13.3 above their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (+66%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 468 balls faced.
Sample: 468 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 33.8, 13.5 above their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (+66%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 385 balls faced.
Sample: 385 balls · medium confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 40.4, 20.1 above their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (+99%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 229 balls faced.
Sample: 229 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 32.9, 12.6 above their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (+62%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 361 balls faced.
Sample: 361 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 34.6, 14.3 above their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (+71%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +0%) — 332 balls faced.
Sample: 332 balls · medium confidence
Batting first: average of 23.1, 2.8 above their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 443 balls faced.
Sample: 443 balls · medium confidence
Off break: average of 35.3, 15.0 above their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (+74%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 171 balls faced.
Sample: 171 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Away from home: average of 61.0, 13.4 above their average of 47.6 on all balls bowled (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 420 balls bowled.
Sample: 420 balls · medium confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 53.0, 5.4 above their average of 47.6 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 505 balls bowled.
Sample: 505 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

England: average of 37.5, 10.1 below their average of 47.6 on all balls bowled (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 420 balls bowled.
Sample: 420 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 37.5, 10.1 below their average of 47.6 on all balls bowled (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 420 balls bowled.
Sample: 420 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 4.33, 0.42 below their economy of 4.76 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 335 balls bowled.
Sample: 335 balls · low confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 40.3, 7.2 below their average of 47.6 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 335 balls bowled.
Sample: 335 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Off break	171	106	3	35.33	61.99	55.0%	2.9%
Right-arm fast-medium	141	143	9	15.89	101.42	47.5%	10.6%
Leg break	94	57	2	28.50	60.64	56.4%	4.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	81	57	2	28.50	70.37	46.9%	4.9%
Right-arm fast	75	49	4	12.25	65.33	53.3%	4.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	468	269	8	33.63	57.48	59.8%	3.2%
Death (41-50)	204	218	16	13.63

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	505	424	8	53.00	5.04	63.1	46.5%	5.7%
Left-handed batters	335	242	6	40.33	4.33	55.8	51.3%	3.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	750	582	12	48.50	4.66	62.5	49.2%	4.8%