Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

KD Mills, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Batting first: average of 13.6, 6.2 below their average of 19.8 on all balls faced (-31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 438 balls faced.
Sample: 438 balls · medium confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 72.7, 17.5 below their strike rate of 90.2 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 366 balls faced.
Sample: 366 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 18.0, 1.8 below their average of 19.8 on all balls faced (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 366 balls faced.
Sample: 366 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 19, 2 below their balls per dismissal of 22 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 292 balls faced.
Sample: 292 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 58.9, 31.2 below their strike rate of 90.2 on all balls faced (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 151 balls faced.
Sample: 151 balls · low confidence
Off break: average of 11.1, 8.7 below their average of 19.8 on all balls faced (-44%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 151 balls faced.
Sample: 151 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 13.7, 6.1 below their average of 19.8 on all balls faced (-31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 191 balls faced.
Sample: 191 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Chasing: average of 28.7, 8.9 above their average of 19.8 on all balls faced (+45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 528 balls faced.
Sample: 528 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 22.4, 2.6 above their average of 19.8 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 775 balls faced.
Sample: 775 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 112.7, 22.5 above their strike rate of 90.2 on all balls faced (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 260 balls faced.
Sample: 260 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 26.6, 6.8 above their average of 19.8 on all balls faced (+35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 260 balls faced.
Sample: 260 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Death (41-50): economy of 7.25, 2.53 above their economy of 4.72 on all balls bowled (+54%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +19%) — 860 balls bowled.
Sample: 860 balls · high confidence
Powerplay (1-10): strike rate of 44.0, 10.5 above their strike rate of 33.5 on all balls bowled (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +15%) — 3478 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,478 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 28.4, 2.1 above their average of 26.3 on all balls bowled (+8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 2467 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,467 balls · high confidence
England: average of 33.7, 7.4 above their average of 26.3 on all balls bowled (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 928 balls bowled.
Sample: 928 balls · high confidence
England: average of 42.3, 16.0 above their average of 26.3 on all balls bowled (+61%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 500 balls bowled.
Sample: 500 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Death (41-50): strike rate of 16.9, 16.6 below their strike rate of 33.5 on all balls bowled (-50%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -23%) — 860 balls bowled.
Sample: 860 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 21.8, 4.6 below their average of 26.3 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 871 balls bowled.
Sample: 871 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 22.9, 3.4 below their average of 26.3 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 868 balls bowled.
Sample: 868 balls · high confidence
Powerplay (1-10): economy of 4.15, 0.56 below their economy of 4.72 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 3478 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	260	293	11	26.64	112.69	42.3%	14.2%
Slow left-arm orthodox	168	128	4	32.00	76.19	61.9%	7.7%
Off break	151	89	8	11.13	58.94	64.9%	5.3%
Right-arm fast	137	115	10	11.50	83.94	54.7%	10.2%
Left-arm fast-medium	82	96	6	16.00	117.07	41.5%	15.9%
Right-arm medium	82	90	3	30.00	109.76	39.0%	13.4%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Death (41-50)	591	604	30	20.13

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	4,034	3,210	122	26.31	4.77	33.1	59.5%	9.6%
Left-handed batters	2,363	1,817	69	26.33	4.61	34.2	63.1%	10.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Powerplay (1-10)	3,478	2,408	79	30.48	4.15	44.0	68.9%	9.6%
Middle (11-40)	2,059	1,580	61	25.90	4.60	33.8	57.3%	8.5%
Death (41-50)	860	1,039	51	20.37	7.25	16.9	36.3%	13.6%