Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

KJ O'Brien, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Batting first: average of 21.9, 5.7 below their average of 27.6 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1002 balls faced.
Sample: 1,002 balls · high confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 17.3, 10.3 below their average of 27.6 on all balls faced (-37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +13%) — 226 balls faced.
Sample: 226 balls · medium confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 86.7, 8.7 below their strike rate of 95.4 on all balls faced (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 30% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1669 balls faced.
Sample: 1,669 balls · high confidence
Right-arm medium: average of 21.4, 6.3 below their average of 27.6 on all balls faced (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 234 balls faced.
Sample: 234 balls · medium confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 81.0, 14.4 below their strike rate of 95.4 on all balls faced (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 394 balls faced.
Sample: 394 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Chasing: average of 36.1, 8.5 above their average of 27.6 on all balls faced (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1085 balls faced.
Sample: 1,085 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 103.5, 8.2 above their strike rate of 95.4 on all balls faced (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 653 balls faced.
Sample: 653 balls · high confidence
Scotland: average of 48.3, 20.7 above their average of 27.6 on all balls faced (+75%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 258 balls faced.
Sample: 258 balls · medium confidence
Off break: average of 40.2, 12.6 above their average of 27.6 on all balls faced (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 393 balls faced.
Sample: 393 balls · medium confidence
Death (41-50): strike rate of 147.7, 52.3 above their strike rate of 95.4 on all balls faced (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +25%) — 325 balls faced.
Sample: 325 balls · medium confidence
Pakistan: average of 50.0, 22.4 above their average of 27.6 on all balls faced (+81%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 165 balls faced.
Sample: 165 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

At home: average of 59.2, 17.3 above their average of 42.0 on all balls bowled (+41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 895 balls bowled.
Sample: 895 balls · high confidence
Ireland: average of 59.2, 17.3 above their average of 42.0 on all balls bowled (+41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 895 balls bowled.
Sample: 895 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 60.7, 16.1 above their strike rate of 44.6 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 1638 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,638 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 46.9, 4.9 above their average of 42.0 on all balls bowled (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1633 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,633 balls · high confidence
Death (41-50): economy of 8.84, 3.19 above their economy of 5.64 on all balls bowled (+57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +19%) — 442 balls bowled.
Sample: 442 balls · medium confidence
Scotland: average of 76.0, 34.0 above their average of 42.0 on all balls bowled (+81%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 356 balls bowled.
Sample: 356 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Middle (11-40): economy of 5.06, 0.58 below their economy of 5.64 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 1638 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,638 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 36.8, 5.2 below their average of 42.0 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 1377 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,377 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 33.4, 8.6 below their average of 42.0 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 687 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	653	676	25	27.04	103.52	47.5%	13.9%
Slow left-arm orthodox	394	319	11	29.00	80.96	52.8%	9.4%
Off break	393	362	9	40.22	92.11	47.3%	9.4%
Right-arm medium	234	235	11	21.36	100.43	48.3%	13.2%
Leg break	200	206	8	25.75	103.00	49.5%	12.5%
Right-arm fast	106	69	3	23.00	65.09	61.3%	7.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,669	1,447	51	28.37

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,633	1,548	33	46.91	5.69	49.5	53.1%	11.3%
Left-handed batters	687	634	19	33.37	5.54	36.2	50.8%	10.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,638	1,381	27	51.15	5.06	60.7	54.2%	9.4%
Death (41-50)	442	651	21	31.00	8.84	21.0	34.4%	18.1%
Powerplay (1-10)	240	150	4	37.50	3.75	60.0	73.8%	8.3%