Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

MP Vaughan, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

At home: average of 22.3, 5.9 below their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 654 balls faced.
Sample: 654 balls · high confidence
Batting first: average of 22.2, 6.0 below their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 938 balls faced.
Sample: 938 balls · high confidence
England: average of 22.3, 5.9 below their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +0%) — 654 balls faced.
Sample: 654 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 25.1, 3.1 below their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 429 balls faced.
Sample: 429 balls · medium confidence
Left-arm fast-medium: average of 20.3, 7.9 below their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 30% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 199 balls faced.
Sample: 199 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Chasing: average of 36.1, 7.9 above their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1133 balls faced.
Sample: 1,133 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 31.6, 3.4 above their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1417 balls faced.
Sample: 1,417 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 31.8, 3.6 above their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 935 balls faced.
Sample: 935 balls · high confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 58.2, 30.0 above their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (+107%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +13%) — 309 balls faced.
Sample: 309 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 74.2, 7.5 above their strike rate of 66.7 on all balls faced (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 287 balls faced.
Sample: 287 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 33.1, 4.9 above their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 444 balls faced.
Sample: 444 balls · medium confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 78.5, 50.3 above their average of 28.2 on all balls faced (+178%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 195 balls faced.
Sample: 195 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 102.0, 44.7 above their strike rate of 57.3 on all balls bowled (+78%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 408 balls bowled.
Sample: 408 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 63.3, 16.9 above their average of 46.4 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 247 balls bowled.
Sample: 247 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Away from home: average of 37.4, 9.0 below their average of 46.4 on all balls bowled (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 342 balls bowled.
Sample: 342 balls · low confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 38.0, 8.4 below their average of 46.4 on all balls bowled (-18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 269 balls bowled.
Sample: 269 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	935	605	19	31.84	64.71	62.6%	7.2%
Right-arm fast	287	213	8	26.63	74.22	60.6%	10.5%
Off break	244	164	5	32.80	67.21	53.3%	4.5%
Left-arm fast-medium	199	122	6	20.33	61.31	70.9%	9.0%
Right-arm medium	126	107	2	53.50	84.92	43.7%	7.9%
Slow left-arm orthodox	99	63	3	21.00	63.64	52.5%	3.0%
Left-arm medium	75	52	3	17.33	69.33	68.0%	12.0%
Leg break	63	32	3	10.67	50.79	60.3%	3.2%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	269	228	6	38.00	5.09	44.8	38.3%	6.3%
Left-handed batters	247	190	3	63.33	4.62	82.3	47.4%	4.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	408	326	4	81.50	4.79	102.0	43.1%	5.6%
Death (41-50)	108	92	5	18.40	5.11	21.6	40.7%	5.6%

Middle (11-40)	1,207	815	28	29.11	67.52	56.6%	6.5%
Powerplay (1-10)	816	508	19	26.74	62.25	68.6%	8.6%