Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

NLTC Perera, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Off break: strike rate of 66.6, 46.2 below their strike rate of 112.8 on all balls faced (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 458 balls faced.
Sample: 458 balls · high confidence
Batting first: average of 16.7, 3.4 below their average of 20.1 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1123 balls faced.
Sample: 1,123 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 99.6, 13.1 below their strike rate of 112.8 on all balls faced (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1112 balls faced.
Sample: 1,112 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 14.0, 6.1 below their average of 20.1 on all balls faced (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 358 balls faced.
Sample: 358 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 18.1, 2.0 below their average of 20.1 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1092 balls faced.
Sample: 1,092 balls · high confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 133.2, 20.4 above their strike rate of 112.8 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 512 balls faced.
Sample: 512 balls · high confidence
Chasing: average of 26.4, 6.3 above their average of 20.1 on all balls faced (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 857 balls faced.
Sample: 857 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 23.2, 3.1 above their average of 20.1 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 888 balls faced.
Sample: 888 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 42.7, 22.6 above their average of 20.1 on all balls faced (+112%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +0%) — 235 balls faced.
Sample: 235 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 28.9, 8.8 above their average of 20.1 on all balls faced (+44%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 358 balls faced.
Sample: 358 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Death (41-50): economy of 9.00, 3.11 above their economy of 5.89 on all balls bowled (+53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: +19%) — 736 balls bowled.
Sample: 736 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 41.2, 7.3 above their average of 33.9 on all balls bowled (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 3617 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,617 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 41.0, 7.1 above their average of 33.9 on all balls bowled (+21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 1585 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,585 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 74.9, 41.0 above their average of 33.9 on all balls bowled (+121%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 493 balls bowled.
Sample: 493 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 6.21, 0.32 above their economy of 5.89 on all balls bowled (+5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1585 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,585 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): strike rate of 42.7, 8.2 above their strike rate of 34.5 on all balls bowled (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 4014 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,014 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 73.7, 39.7 above their average of 33.9 on all balls bowled (+117%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 570 balls bowled.
Sample: 570 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Death (41-50): strike rate of 14.7, 19.8 below their strike rate of 34.5 on all balls bowled (-57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -23%) — 736 balls bowled.
Sample: 736 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 25.4, 8.5 below their average of 33.9 on all balls bowled (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 2049 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	512	682	33	20.67	133.20	35.2%	17.4%
Off break	458	305	12	25.42	66.59	50.7%	3.5%
Leg break	227	279	14	19.93	122.91	46.3%	14.5%
Left-arm fast-medium	224	299	15	19.93	133.48	36.2%	16.1%
Right-arm fast	220	240	15	16.00	109.09	39.1%	11.8%
Slow left-arm orthodox	133	200	7	28.57	150.38	41.4%	20.3%
Left-arm fast	89	110	9	12.22	123.60	41.6%	15.7%
Right-arm medium	85	90	4	22.50	105.88	30.6%	9.4%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	4,081	3,923	124	31.64	5.77	32.9	49.5%	11.1%
Left-handed batters	1,585	1,640	40	41.00	6.21	39.6	44.6%	11.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	4,014	3,641	94	38.73	5.44	42.7	48.2%	9.4%
Powerplay (1-10)	916	818	20	40.90	5.36	45.8	61.0%	13.0%
Death (41-50)	736	1,104	50	22.08	9.00	14.7	32.1%	18.6%

Middle (11-40)	1,112	1,108	48	23.08	99.64	48.7%	11.4%
Death (41-50)	861	1,115	63	17.70	129.50	31.4%	14.2%