Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

PJ Cummins, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 68.0, 15.6 below their strike rate of 83.6 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 291 balls faced.
Sample: 291 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Middle (11-40): average of 19.8, 5.3 above their average of 14.5 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 291 balls faced.
Sample: 291 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 23, 6 above their balls per dismissal of 17 on all balls faced (+34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 163 balls faced.
Sample: 163 balls · low confidence
India: average of 18.2, 3.7 above their average of 14.5 on all balls faced (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 30% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 171 balls faced.
Sample: 171 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 45.1, 12.1 above their strike rate of 33.0 on all balls bowled (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 2390 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,390 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 31.6, 2.7 above their average of 28.9 on all balls bowled (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 3203 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,203 balls · high confidence
Powerplay (1-10): strike rate of 46.8, 13.8 above their strike rate of 33.0 on all balls bowled (+42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +15%) — 1356 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,356 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Death (41-50): strike rate of 15.0, 18.0 below their strike rate of 33.0 on all balls bowled (-55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -23%) — 869 balls bowled.
Sample: 869 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 24.3, 4.6 below their average of 28.9 on all balls bowled (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 1412 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,412 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): economy of 4.96, 0.30 below their economy of 5.26 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 30% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 2390 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,390 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 22.6, 6.2 below their average of 28.9 on all balls bowled (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 494 balls bowled.
Sample: 494 balls · medium confidence
Pakistan: average of 24.7, 4.2 below their average of 28.9 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 533 balls bowled.
Sample: 533 balls · medium confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 17.7, 11.2 below their average of 28.9 on all balls bowled (-39%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 280 balls bowled.
Sample: 280 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast	205	181	12	15.08	88.29	54.1%	9.8%
Right-arm fast-medium	134	123	10	12.30	91.79	57.5%	13.4%
Leg break	83	69	4	17.25	83.13	50.6%	4.8%
Slow left-arm orthodox	61	39	2	19.50	63.93	55.7%	3.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Death (41-50)	350	338	27	12.52	96.57	46.6%	9.7%
Middle (11-40)	291	198	10	19.80	68.04	65.3%	7.6%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,203	2,783	88	31.63	5.21	36.4	55.8%	10.1%
Left-handed batters	1,412	1,263	52	24.29	5.37	27.2	55.1%	10.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	2,390	1,975	53	37.26	4.96	45.1	54.9%	8.9%
Powerplay (1-10)	1,356	1,094	29	37.72	4.84	46.8	66.0%	11.7%
Death (41-50)	869	977	58	16.84	6.75	15.0	41.2%	12.3%