Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

R Shepherd, Men's ODI

Middle (11-40): average of 14.6, 3.4 below their average of 18.0 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 274 balls faced.
Sample: 274 balls · medium confidence
Batting first: average of 14.9, 3.0 below their average of 18.0 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 261 balls faced.
Sample: 261 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 14.1, 3.9 below their average of 18.0 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 201 balls faced.
Sample: 201 balls · low confidence
Away from home: average of 13.7, 4.3 below their average of 18.0 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 165 balls faced.
Sample: 165 balls · low confidence

Pace: average of 21.5, 3.6 above their average of 18.0 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 226 balls faced.
Sample: 226 balls · medium confidence
Death (41-50): average of 25.1, 7.2 above their average of 18.0 on all balls faced (+40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -7%) — 153 balls faced.
Sample: 153 balls · low confidence
Chasing: average of 24.4, 6.4 above their average of 18.0 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 166 balls faced.
Sample: 166 balls · low confidence

Away from home: average of 55.5, 12.6 above their average of 42.9 on all balls bowled (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 471 balls bowled.
Sample: 471 balls · medium confidence
Powerplay (1-10): strike rate of 74.0, 27.1 above their strike rate of 46.9 on all balls bowled (+58%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +15%) — 444 balls bowled.
Sample: 444 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 5.89, 0.40 above their economy of 5.48 on all balls bowled (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 474 balls bowled.
Sample: 474 balls · medium confidence
Bangladesh: average of 49.0, 6.1 above their average of 42.9 on all balls bowled (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 291 balls bowled.
Sample: 291 balls · low confidence

Middle (11-40): economy of 4.98, 0.50 below their economy of 5.48 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 780 balls bowled.
Sample: 780 balls · high confidence
Powerplay (1-10): economy of 4.41, 1.08 below their economy of 5.48 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 444 balls bowled.
Sample: 444 balls · medium confidence

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	133	152	8	19.00	114.29	38.3%	12.8%
Slow left-arm orthodox	79	58	4	14.50	73.42	60.8%	8.9%
Leg break	74	77	3	25.67	104.05	50.0%	13.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	274	248	17	14.59	90.51	55.1%	12.0%
Death (41-50)	153	201	8	25.13	131.37	33.3%	15.7%

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	980	864	21	41.14	5.29	46.7	53.5%	10.6%
Left-handed batters	474	465	10	46.50	5.89	47.4	54.9%	13.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	780	648	14	46.29	4.98	55.7	52.8%	9.7%
Powerplay (1-10)	444	326	6	54.33	4.41	74.0	67.3%	9.9%
Death (41-50)	230	355	11	32.27	9.26	20.9	31.7%	20.4%