Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

SM Curran, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 78.3, 11.0 below their strike rate of 89.3 on all balls faced (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 626 balls faced.
Sample: 626 balls · high confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 19, 8 below their balls per dismissal of 27 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 290 balls faced.
Sample: 290 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 22.6, 1.5 below their average of 24.1 on all balls faced (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 353 balls faced.
Sample: 353 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 18.8, 5.4 below their average of 24.1 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 159 balls faced.
Sample: 159 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Away from home: average of 26.3, 2.2 above their average of 24.1 on all balls faced (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 679 balls faced.
Sample: 679 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 40, 13 above their balls per dismissal of 27 on all balls faced (+49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 444 balls faced.
Sample: 444 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 35.8, 11.7 above their average of 24.1 on all balls faced (+48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 208 balls faced.
Sample: 208 balls · low confidence
West Indies: average of 35.8, 11.7 above their average of 24.1 on all balls faced (+48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 208 balls faced.
Sample: 208 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 99.0, 9.7 above their strike rate of 89.3 on all balls faced (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 194 balls faced.
Sample: 194 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 70.5, 31.6 above their strike rate of 39.0 on all balls bowled (+81%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 1058 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,058 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 47.8, 7.5 above their average of 40.4 on all balls bowled (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1197 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,197 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 50.7, 10.4 above their average of 40.4 on all balls bowled (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 1268 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,268 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

England: average of 26.6, 13.8 below their average of 40.4 on all balls bowled (-34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 528 balls bowled.
Sample: 528 balls · medium confidence
Powerplay (1-10): strike rate of 28.1, 10.9 below their strike rate of 39.0 on all balls bowled (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +15%) — 450 balls bowled.
Sample: 450 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 26.4, 14.0 below their average of 40.4 on all balls bowled (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 564 balls bowled.
Sample: 564 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 31.1, 9.2 below their average of 40.4 on all balls bowled (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 635 balls bowled.
Sample: 635 balls · medium confidence
Powerplay (1-10): economy of 5.09, 1.12 below their economy of 6.22 on all balls bowled (-18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 450 balls bowled.
Sample: 450 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 36.4, 4.0 below their average of 40.4 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: +13%) — 288 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	194	192	7	27.43	98.97	44.3%	11.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	145	127	3	42.33	87.59	43.4%	7.6%
Off break	128	73	5	14.60	57.03	48.4%	0.8%
Right-arm fast	124	129	5	25.80	104.03	45.2%	12.9%
Right-arm medium	74	63	3	21.00	85.14	56.8%	12.2%
Left-arm fast-medium	61	61	2	30.50	100.00	39.3%	8.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	626	490	20	24.50

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,197	1,244	26	47.85	6.24	46.0	47.5%	12.3%
Left-handed batters	635	654	21	31.14	6.18	30.2	48.5%	12.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	1,058	1,051	15	70.07	5.96	70.5	45.2%	10.6%
Powerplay (1-10)	450	382	16	23.88	5.09	28.1	62.9%	11.8%
Death (41-50)	324	465	16	29.06	8.61	20.3	35.8%	18.5%