Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

TG Southee, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Chasing: average of 9.6, 3.4 below their average of 13.0 on all balls faced (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 285 balls faced.
Sample: 285 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 10.0, 3.0 below their average of 13.0 on all balls faced (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 235 balls faced.
Sample: 235 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Batting first: average of 15.8, 2.8 above their average of 13.0 on all balls faced (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 465 balls faced.
Sample: 465 balls · high confidence
Pace: average of 14.3, 1.3 above their average of 13.0 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 515 balls faced.
Sample: 515 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Australia: average of 60.7, 27.5 above their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (+83%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 1075 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,075 balls · high confidence
Death (41-50): economy of 7.83, 2.25 above their economy of 5.58 on all balls bowled (+40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +19%) — 1327 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,327 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 5.88, 0.30 above their economy of 5.58 on all balls bowled (+5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 2263 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,263 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 36.4, 3.1 above their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 3749 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,749 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 74.6, 41.3 above their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (+124%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 558 balls bowled.
Sample: 558 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 60.3, 27.0 above their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (+81%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 663 balls bowled.
Sample: 663 balls · medium confidence
United Arab Emirates: average of 41.4, 8.2 above their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 279 balls bowled.
Sample: 279 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Powerplay (1-10): economy of 4.63, 0.95 below their economy of 5.58 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 3234 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,234 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 26.9, 6.4 below their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1028 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,028 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 30.6, 2.6 below their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 3941 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,941 balls · high confidence
Death (41-50): strike rate of 21.1, 14.7 below their strike rate of 35.8 on all balls bowled (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -23%) — 1327 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,327 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 25.6, 7.6 below their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 723 balls bowled.
Sample: 723 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 17.9, 15.4 below their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (-46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 419 balls bowled.
Sample: 419 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 30.5, 2.7 below their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 1224 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,224 balls · high confidence
India: average of 31.2, 2.0 below their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 1019 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,019 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 25.4, 7.8 below their average of 33.2 on all balls bowled (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 625 balls bowled.
Sample: 625 balls · medium confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	192	234	14	16.71	121.88	43.2%	16.1%
Right-arm fast	157	143	9	15.89	91.08	49.0%	10.8%
Leg break	108	63	9	7.00	58.33	61.1%	4.6%
Slow left-arm orthodox	75	69	4	17.25	92.00	50.7%	9.3%
Right-arm medium	65	79	4	19.75	121.54	40.0%	13.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Death (41-50)	489	472	37	12.76	96.52	45.4%	9.8%
Middle (11-40)	261	243	18	13.50

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	5,427	4,929	156	31.60	5.45	34.8	54.5%	11.3%
Left-handed batters	2,263	2,217	59	37.58	5.88	38.4	55.5%	13.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Powerplay (1-10)	3,234	2,493	73	34.15	4.63	44.3	66.6%	11.4%
Middle (11-40)	3,129	2,922	79	36.99	5.60	39.6	50.8%	11.3%
Death (41-50)	1,327	1,731	63	27.48	7.83	21.1	35.5%	15.4%