Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

TK Curran, Men's ODI

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Pace: average of 32.1, 5.8 below their average of 37.9 on all balls faced (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 249 balls faced.
Sample: 249 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 29.8, 8.1 below their average of 37.9 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 164 balls faced.
Sample: 164 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Batting first: average of 52.0, 14.1 above their average of 37.9 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 201 balls faced.
Sample: 201 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 51.3, 13.5 above their average of 37.9 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 157 balls faced.
Sample: 157 balls · low confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 58, 18 above their balls per dismissal of 40 on all balls faced (+45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 174 balls faced.
Sample: 174 balls · low confidence
England: average of 51.3, 13.5 above their average of 37.9 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +0%) — 157 balls faced.
Sample: 157 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Middle (11-40): strike rate of 52.4, 13.9 above their strike rate of 38.5 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 733 balls bowled.
Sample: 733 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 40.1, 2.2 above their average of 37.9 on all balls bowled (+6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 861 balls bowled.
Sample: 861 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 6.54, 0.62 above their economy of 5.92 on all balls bowled (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 447 balls bowled.
Sample: 447 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 41.8, 3.8 above their average of 37.9 on all balls bowled (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 534 balls bowled.
Sample: 534 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 54.0, 16.1 above their average of 37.9 on all balls bowled (+42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 242 balls bowled.
Sample: 242 balls · low confidence
New Zealand: average of 54.0, 16.1 above their average of 37.9 on all balls bowled (+42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 242 balls bowled.
Sample: 242 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: economy of 5.60, 0.32 below their economy of 5.92 on all balls bowled (-5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 861 balls bowled.
Sample: 861 balls · high confidence
Middle (11-40): economy of 5.21, 0.71 below their economy of 5.92 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 733 balls bowled.
Sample: 733 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 21.6, 16.3 below their average of 37.9 on all balls bowled (-43%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 246 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	121	126	4	31.50	104.13	46.3%	13.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Death (41-50)	195	230	6	38.33	117.95	37.9%	13.8%
Middle (11-40)	126	73	2	36.50	57.94	61.9%	5.6%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	861	803	20	40.15	5.60	43.0	46.7%	9.5%
Left-handed batters	447	487	14	34.79	6.54	31.9	41.8%	12.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Middle (11-40)	733	636	14	45.43	5.21	52.4	46.7%	8.0%
Death (41-50)	377	495	16	30.94	7.88	23.6	32.6%	15.4%
Powerplay (1-10)	198	159	4	39.75	4.82	49.5	62.6%	10.6%