Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

A Nel, Men's Test

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 40.7, 9.3 below their strike rate of 50.0 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 324 balls faced.
Sample: 324 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 8.1, 2.2 below their average of 10.3 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 266 balls faced.
Sample: 266 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 8.2, 2.1 below their average of 10.3 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 324 balls faced.
Sample: 324 balls · medium confidence
Leg break: strike rate of 33.5, 16.5 below their strike rate of 50.0 on all balls faced (-33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 176 balls faced.
Sample: 176 balls · low confidence
Away from home: average of 5.7, 4.7 below their average of 10.3 on all balls faced (-45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 165 balls faced.
Sample: 165 balls · low confidence

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 58.1, 8.1 above their strike rate of 50.0 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 265 balls faced.
Sample: 265 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 14.1, 3.8 above their average of 10.3 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 435 balls faced.
Sample: 435 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 14.1, 3.8 above their average of 10.3 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 435 balls faced.
Sample: 435 balls · medium confidence
Pace: average of 11.5, 1.2 above their average of 10.3 on all balls faced (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 334 balls faced.
Sample: 334 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 26, 5 above their balls per dismissal of 21 on all balls faced (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 208 balls faced.
Sample: 208 balls · low confidence

Pakistan: average of 55.4, 22.5 above their average of 32.8 on all balls bowled (+69%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 864 balls bowled.
Sample: 864 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.51, 0.44 above their economy of 3.07 on all balls bowled (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 851 balls bowled.
Sample: 851 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 49.2, 16.4 above their average of 32.8 on all balls bowled (+50%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 756 balls bowled.
Sample: 756 balls · high confidence
England: average of 50.8, 17.9 above their average of 32.8 on all balls bowled (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 368 balls bowled.
Sample: 368 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 50.8, 17.9 above their average of 32.8 on all balls bowled (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 368 balls bowled.
Sample: 368 balls · medium confidence

West Indies: average of 19.9, 13.0 below their average of 32.8 on all balls bowled (-40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 1132 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,132 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 44.8, 19.4 below their strike rate of 64.2 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 851 balls bowled.
Sample: 851 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 2.91, 0.16 below their economy of 3.07 on all balls bowled (-5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1845 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,845 balls · high confidence
India: average of 24.4, 8.4 below their average of 32.8 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 461 balls bowled.

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Leg break	176	59	6	9.83	33.52	81.8%	5.1%
Right-arm fast-medium	165	87	9	9.67	52.73	77.6%	6.7%
Right-arm medium	76	53	3	17.67	69.74	71.1%	10.5%
Right-arm fast	69	68	5	13.60	98.55	59.4%	15.9%
Slow left-arm orthodox	69	19	3	6.33	27.54	79.7%	1.4%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	324	132	16	8.25	40.74	80.6%	5.2%
Old ball (21-80)	265	154	13	11.85

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,096	1,634	52	31.42	3.17	59.5	75.3%	7.7%
Left-handed batters	1,845	894	25	35.76	2.91	73.8	75.7%	6.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	2,752	1,363	39	34.95	2.97	70.6	76.2%	7.2%
New ball (1-20)	1,338	667	19	35.11	2.99	70.4	76.2%	7.1%
Second new ball (81+)	851	498	19	26.21	3.51	44.8	71.8%	7.9%