Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

A Nortje, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 29.9, 2.0 below their strike rate of 31.9 on all balls faced (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 468 balls faced.
Sample: 468 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 6.1, 1.9 below their average of 8.0 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 288 balls faced.
Sample: 288 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 38.5, 6.5 above their strike rate of 31.9 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 252 balls faced.
Sample: 252 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 12.2, 4.2 above their average of 8.0 on all balls faced (+53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 385 balls faced.
Sample: 385 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 9.8, 1.9 above their average of 8.0 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 360 balls faced.
Sample: 360 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 9.8, 1.9 above their average of 8.0 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 360 balls faced.
Sample: 360 balls · medium confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 54, 29 above their balls per dismissal of 25 on all balls faced (+117%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 162 balls faced.
Sample: 162 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 67.2, 23.0 above their strike rate of 44.2 on all balls bowled (+52%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 672 balls bowled.
Sample: 672 balls · medium confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 56.8, 12.5 above their strike rate of 44.2 on all balls bowled (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1022 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,022 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 28.8, 1.9 above their average of 26.9 on all balls bowled (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 2198 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,198 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 4.00, 0.35 above their economy of 3.65 on all balls bowled (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 30% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 672 balls bowled.
Sample: 672 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 179.0, 152.1 above their average of 26.9 on all balls bowled (+565%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 297 balls bowled.
Sample: 297 balls · low confidence
India: average of 179.0, 152.1 above their average of 26.9 on all balls bowled (+565%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 297 balls bowled.
Sample: 297 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 34.6, 9.7 below their strike rate of 44.2 on all balls bowled (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1624 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,624 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 24.0, 3.0 below their average of 26.9 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1120 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,120 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 17.2, 9.7 below their average of 26.9 on all balls bowled (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 462 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	252	97	12	8.08	38.49	80.6%	5.2%
Off break	127	24	2	12.00	18.90	90.6%	3.1%
Right-arm fast	85	32	5	6.40	37.65	80.0%	5.9%
Left-arm fast-medium	65	23	2	11.50	35.38	86.2%	6.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	468	140	16	8.75	29.91	84.8%	4.3%
Second new ball (81+)	127	60	9	6.67	47.24	80.3%	7.9%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,198	1,324	46	28.78	3.61	47.8	72.3%	8.6%
Left-handed batters	1,120	695	29	23.97	3.72	38.6	70.3%	8.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,624	967	47	20.57	3.57	34.6	70.1%	8.0%
New ball (1-20)	1,022	604	18	33.56	3.55	56.8	75.4%	9.3%
Second new ball (81+)	672	448	10	44.80	4.00	67.2	69.5%	9.2%