Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

AM Fernando, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 14.7, 8.0 below their strike rate of 22.7 on all balls faced (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 150 balls faced.
Sample: 150 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

No batting strength clears the thresholds in this format.

Batting against them: where they leak

Right-handed batters: average of 29.5, 1.9 above their average of 27.5 on all balls bowled (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 2850 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,850 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.85, 0.34 above their economy of 3.51 on all balls bowled (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1077 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,077 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 29.6, 2.1 above their average of 27.5 on all balls bowled (+8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 1665 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,665 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 53.8, 26.2 above their average of 27.5 on all balls bowled (+95%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 306 balls bowled.
Sample: 306 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

New ball (1-20): economy of 3.26, 0.26 below their economy of 3.51 on all balls bowled (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1284 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,284 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 24.5, 3.1 below their average of 27.5 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1431 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,431 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 20.1, 7.5 below their average of 27.5 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 953 balls bowled.
Sample: 953 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 18.4, 9.2 below their average of 27.5 on all balls bowled (-33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 571 balls bowled.
Sample: 571 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 24.6, 2.9 below their average of 27.5 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 594 balls bowled.
Sample: 594 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 20.0, 7.5 below their average of 27.5 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 333 balls bowled.
Sample: 333 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Slow left-arm orthodox	77	1	1	1.00	1.30	98.7%	0.0%
Off break	72	23	4	5.75	31.94	90.3%	5.6%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	150	22	6	3.67	14.67	93.3%	2.7%
Old ball (21-80)	108	37	10	3.70	34.26	88.0%	6.5%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,850	1,650	56	29.46	3.47	50.9	69.0%	6.9%
Left-handed batters	1,431	857	35	24.49	3.59	40.9	69.3%	7.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,920	1,119	40	27.98	3.50	48.0	67.4%	6.5%
New ball (1-20)	1,284	697	24	29.04	3.26	53.5	73.4%	7.8%
Second new ball (81+)	1,077	691	27	25.59	3.85	39.9	67.0%	8.0%