Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

AS Joseph, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 51.7, 5.7 below their strike rate of 57.4 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 563 balls faced.
Sample: 563 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 9.9, 2.7 below their average of 12.6 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 700 balls faced.
Sample: 700 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 9.9, 2.7 below their average of 12.6 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 700 balls faced.
Sample: 700 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 11.6, 1.0 below their average of 12.6 on all balls faced (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 727 balls faced.
Sample: 727 balls · high confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 63.5, 6.2 above their strike rate of 57.4 on all balls faced (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 727 balls faced.
Sample: 727 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 15.4, 2.9 above their average of 12.6 on all balls faced (+23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 701 balls faced.
Sample: 701 balls · high confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 33, 11 above their balls per dismissal of 22 on all balls faced (+49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 261 balls faced.
Sample: 261 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 16.5, 3.9 above their average of 12.6 on all balls faced (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 294 balls faced.
Sample: 294 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 67.4, 10.0 above their strike rate of 57.4 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 307 balls faced.
Sample: 307 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

England: average of 57.3, 23.7 above their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (+71%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 914 balls bowled.
Sample: 914 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 42.3, 8.8 above their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 2454 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,454 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 39.4, 5.9 above their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 2915 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,915 balls · high confidence
India: average of 76.5, 42.9 above their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (+128%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 434 balls bowled.
Sample: 434 balls · medium confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 42.5, 8.9 above their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (+27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 30% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 666 balls bowled.
Sample: 666 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 52.0, 18.4 above their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 318 balls bowled.
Sample: 318 balls · low confidence
New Zealand: average of 52.0, 18.4 above their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 318 balls bowled.
Sample: 318 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Bangladesh: average of 20.8, 12.8 below their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (-38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 837 balls bowled.
Sample: 837 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 29.7, 3.8 below their average of 33.6 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 1220 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	544	297	28	10.61	54.60	74.6%	7.5%
Off break	307	207	14	14.79	67.43	76.9%	9.4%
Slow left-arm orthodox	144	76	3	25.33	52.78	74.3%	6.3%
Left-arm fast-medium	123	74	1	74.00	60.16	78.0%	8.9%
Left-arm fast	103	56	4	14.00	54.37	73.8%	9.7%
Right-arm fast	102	65	5	13.00	63.73	69.6%	8.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	727	462	40	11.55

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	4,570	2,839	94	30.20	3.73	48.6	70.9%	7.9%
Left-handed batters	2,454	1,524	36	42.33	3.73	68.2	69.1%	7.6%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	3,800	2,285	70	32.64	3.61	54.3	70.3%	7.2%
New ball (1-20)	1,968	1,256	32	39.25	3.83	61.5	71.6%	8.5%
Second new ball (81+)	1,256	822	28	29.36	3.93	44.9	68.3%	8.4%