Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

BL Morgan, Women's Test

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 21.5, 2.2 below their strike rate of 23.6 on all balls faced (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 452 balls faced.
Sample: 452 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 16.7, 7.0 below their strike rate of 23.6 on all balls faced (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 300 balls faced.
Sample: 300 balls · medium confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 90, 32 below their balls per dismissal of 121 on all balls faced (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 448 balls faced.
Sample: 448 balls · medium confidence

England: average of 37.2, 8.6 above their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (+30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 568 balls faced.
Sample: 568 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 50.0, 21.3 above their average of 28.7 on all balls faced (+74%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 300 balls faced.
Sample: 300 balls · medium confidence

Right-handed batters: economy of 2.29, 0.18 above their economy of 2.11 on all balls bowled (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 432 balls bowled.
Sample: 432 balls · medium confidence

Right-handed batters: average of 41.2, 8.2 below their average of 49.5 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 432 balls bowled.
Sample: 432 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 35.7, 13.8 below their average of 49.5 on all balls bowled (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 347 balls bowled.
Sample: 347 balls · low confidence

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	300	50	1	50.00	16.67	86.7%	1.0%
Off break	153	38	2	19.00	24.84	86.9%	2.0%
Slow left-arm orthodox	132	58	1	58.00	43.94	76.5%	6.8%
Right-arm medium	73	20	1	20.00	27.40	80.8%	4.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	452	97	3	32.33	21.46	88.1%	2.7%
Second new ball (81+)	144	51	3	17.00	35.42	72.9%	2.1%
New ball (1-20)	132	24	0	–

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	432	165	4	41.25	2.29	108.0	81.3%	6.0%
Left-handed batters	131	33	0	–	1.51	–	86.3%	4.6%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	438	153	3	51.00	2.10	146.0	82.4%	5.5%
Second new ball (81+)	101	36	1	36.00	2.14	101.0	81.2%	5.9%