Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

BP Nash, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Off break: strike rate of 31.4, 12.3 below their strike rate of 43.7 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 656 balls faced.
Sample: 656 balls · high confidence
Off break: average of 18.7, 13.7 below their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 656 balls faced.
Sample: 656 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 27.1, 5.3 below their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 1053 balls faced.
Sample: 1,053 balls · high confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 65, 9 below their balls per dismissal of 74 on all balls faced (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1238 balls faced.
Sample: 1,238 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 28.1, 4.3 below their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 864 balls faced.
Sample: 864 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 41.2, 2.5 below their strike rate of 43.7 on all balls faced (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1263 balls faced.
Sample: 1,263 balls · high confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 126, 52 above their balls per dismissal of 74 on all balls faced (+70%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 505 balls faced.
Sample: 505 balls · high confidence
Pace: average of 37.4, 5.0 above their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 1101 balls faced.
Sample: 1,101 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 38.9, 6.5 above their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1160 balls faced.
Sample: 1,160 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 41.7, 9.2 above their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 605 balls faced.
Sample: 605 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 41.7, 9.2 above their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 605 balls faced.
Sample: 605 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 47.3, 3.6 above their strike rate of 43.7 on all balls faced (+8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 681 balls faced.
Sample: 681 balls · high confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 118.0, 85.6 above their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (+264%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 268 balls faced.
Sample: 268 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 35.8, 3.3 above their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 681 balls faced.
Sample: 681 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 53.3, 20.9 above their average of 32.4 on all balls faced (+64%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 337 balls faced.
Sample: 337 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Old ball (21-80): economy of 3.24, 0.28 above their economy of 2.97 on all balls bowled (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 283 balls bowled.
Sample: 283 balls · low confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 283.0, 57.5 above their strike rate of 225.5 on all balls bowled (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 283 balls bowled.
Sample: 283 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: average of 81.5, 30.0 below their average of 111.5 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 347 balls bowled.
Sample: 347 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	681	322	9	35.78	47.28	75.8%	6.3%
Off break	656	206	11	18.73	31.40	80.3%	3.0%
Slow left-arm orthodox	268	118	1	118.00	44.03	71.6%	3.4%
Left-arm fast-medium	172	74	2	37.00	43.02	73.8%	4.1%
Leg break	129	56	2	28.00	43.41	74.4%	3.9%
Left-arm fast	111	77	1	77.00	69.37	67.6%	9.9%
Right-arm fast	71	69	2	34.50	97.18	63.4%	15.5%
Right-arm medium	66	19	1	19.00	28.79	86.4%	3.0%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	347	163	2	81.50	2.82	173.5	72.6%	5.8%
Left-handed batters	104	60	0	–	3.46	–	63.5%	5.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	283	153	1	153.00	3.24	283.0	68.2%	6.4%
Second new ball (81+)	162	70	1	70.00	2.59	162.0	73.5%	4.9%

Old ball (21-80)	1,263	520	17	30.59	41.17	77.0%	4.4%
Second new ball (81+)	818	382	10	38.20	46.70	74.4%	5.7%
New ball (1-20)	73	39	2	19.50	53.42	74.0%	6.8%