Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

BW Hilfenhaus, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Old ball (21-80): average of 11.4, 2.8 below their average of 14.2 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 291 balls faced.
Sample: 291 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 11.2, 3.0 below their average of 14.2 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 213 balls faced.
Sample: 213 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Away from home: average of 16.2, 2.0 above their average of 14.2 on all balls faced (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 442 balls faced.
Sample: 442 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 29.2, 15.1 above their average of 14.2 on all balls faced (+106%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 205 balls faced.
Sample: 205 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 88.3, 26.9 above their strike rate of 61.4 on all balls bowled (+44%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 2827 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,827 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 52.3, 23.8 above their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (+83%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 750 balls bowled.
Sample: 750 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 44.5, 16.0 above their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (+56%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1358 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,358 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.05, 0.26 above their economy of 2.79 on all balls bowled (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1326 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,326 balls · high confidence
England: average of 35.1, 6.6 above their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (+23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 2032 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,032 balls · high confidence
India: average of 43.5, 15.0 above their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (+53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 492 balls bowled.
Sample: 492 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

India: average of 22.0, 6.5 below their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1500 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,500 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 50.7, 10.7 below their strike rate of 61.4 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1926 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,926 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 18.5, 10.0 below their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 744 balls bowled.
Sample: 744 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 25.9, 2.6 below their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 2775 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,775 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 45.7, 15.7 below their strike rate of 61.4 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 1326 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,326 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 20.8, 7.7 below their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 606 balls bowled.
Sample: 606 balls · medium confidence
Wales: average of 24.8, 3.7 below their average of 28.5 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 252 balls bowled.
Sample: 252 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	278	149	11	13.55	53.60	75.5%	9.0%
Off break	144	64	5	12.80	44.44	75.0%	5.6%
Left-arm fast-medium	77	35	2	17.50	45.45	80.5%	7.8%
Leg break	67	41	1	41.00	61.19	65.7%	9.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	364	207	12	17.25	56.87	72.8%	8.5%
Old ball (21-80)	291	148	13	11.38	50.86	74.9%	7.9%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,900	1,839	69	26.65	2.83	56.5	78.4%	6.1%
Left-handed batters	2,179	983	30	32.77	2.71	72.6	79.3%	5.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	2,827	1,295	32	40.47	2.75	88.3	79.9%	5.9%
New ball (1-20)	1,926	854	38	22.47	2.66	50.7	79.0%	5.7%
Second new ball (81+)	1,326	673	29	23.21	3.05	45.7	75.9%	6.6%