Plans built only from the evidence.

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 45.4, 8.9 below their strike rate of 54.3 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 260 balls faced.

Sample: 260 balls · medium confidence

Old ball (21-80): average of 29.5, 12.5 below their average of 42.0 on all balls faced (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 260 balls faced.

Sample: 260 balls · medium confidence

At home: average of 30.0, 12.0 below their average of 42.0 on all balls faced (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 230 balls faced.

Sample: 230 balls · medium confidence

New Zealand: average of 30.0, 12.0 below their average of 42.0 on all balls faced (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 230 balls faced.

Sample: 230 balls · medium confidence

Australia: average of 14.0, 28.0 below their average of 42.0 on all balls faced (-67%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 183 balls faced.

Sample: 183 balls · low confidence

Away from home: average of 66.0, 24.0 above their average of 42.0 on all balls faced (+57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 234 balls faced.

Sample: 234 balls · medium confidence

South Africa: average of 82.0, 40.0 above their average of 42.0 on all balls faced (+95%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 151 balls faced.

Sample: 151 balls · low confidence

Second new ball (81+): average of 67.0, 25.0 above their average of 42.0 on all balls faced (+60%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 199 balls faced.

Sample: 199 balls · low confidence

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 67.3, 13.0 above their strike rate of 54.3 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 199 balls faced.

Sample: 199 balls · low confidence