Plans built only from the evidence.

Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 35.6, 7.2 below their strike rate of 42.8 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 626 balls faced.

Sample: 626 balls · high confidence

Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 56, 13 below their balls per dismissal of 69 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 452 balls faced.

Sample: 452 balls · high confidence

Right-arm fast-medium: average of 22.3, 7.4 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 626 balls faced.

Sample: 626 balls · high confidence

England: average of 22.3, 7.4 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 611 balls faced.

Sample: 611 balls · high confidence

Old ball (21-80): average of 22.2, 7.6 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 268 balls faced.

Sample: 268 balls · medium confidence

England: average of 11.0, 18.7 below their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (-63%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 162 balls faced.

Sample: 162 balls · low confidence

New ball (1-20): average of 34.8, 5.0 above their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 774 balls faced.

Sample: 774 balls · high confidence

Right-arm fast: average of 75.5, 45.8 above their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (+154%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 309 balls faced.

Sample: 309 balls · medium confidence

New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 128, 58 above their balls per dismissal of 69 on all balls faced (+84%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 255 balls faced.

Sample: 255 balls · medium confidence

South Africa: average of 44.6, 14.9 above their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (+50%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 431 balls faced.

Sample: 431 balls · medium confidence

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 49.6, 6.8 above their strike rate of 42.8 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 268 balls faced.

Sample: 268 balls · medium confidence

South Africa: average of 44.6, 14.9 above their average of 29.7 on all balls faced (+50%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 431 balls faced.

Sample: 431 balls · medium confidence

Right-arm fast: strike rate of 48.9, 6.1 above their strike rate of 42.8 on all balls faced (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 309 balls faced.

Sample: 309 balls · medium confidence