Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

DS Lehmann, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Old ball (21-80): average of 31.0, 9.8 below their average of 40.8 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 412 balls faced.
Sample: 412 balls · medium confidence
Pace: average of 32.6, 8.2 below their average of 40.8 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 359 balls faced.
Sample: 359 balls · medium confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 31, 44 below their balls per dismissal of 75 on all balls faced (-59%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 154 balls faced.
Sample: 154 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 27.0, 13.8 below their average of 40.8 on all balls faced (-34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 175 balls faced.
Sample: 175 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 46.3, 8.3 below their strike rate of 54.6 on all balls faced (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 175 balls faced.
Sample: 175 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 96, 22 above their balls per dismissal of 75 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 579 balls faced.
Sample: 579 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 54.2, 13.4 above their average of 40.8 on all balls faced (+33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 481 balls faced.
Sample: 481 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 96.0, 55.2 above their average of 40.8 on all balls faced (+135%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 327 balls faced.
Sample: 327 balls · medium confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 96.0, 55.2 above their average of 40.8 on all balls faced (+135%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 327 balls faced.
Sample: 327 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 55.8, 14.9 above their average of 40.8 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 384 balls faced.
Sample: 384 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 165, 90 above their balls per dismissal of 75 on all balls faced (+120%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 165 balls faced.
Sample: 165 balls · low confidence
Bangladesh: average of 110.0, 69.2 above their average of 40.8 on all balls faced (+169%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +22%) — 221 balls faced.
Sample: 221 balls · low confidence
Leg break: strike rate of 73.2, 18.6 above their strike rate of 54.6 on all balls faced (+34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 153 balls faced.
Sample: 153 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 100.0, 20.4 above their strike rate of 79.6 on all balls bowled (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 300 balls bowled.
Sample: 300 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: economy of 2.23, 0.35 below their economy of 2.58 on all balls bowled (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 296 balls bowled.
Sample: 296 balls · low confidence
Australia: average of 27.2, 7.0 below their average of 34.2 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 356 balls bowled.
Sample: 356 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 27.2, 7.0 below their average of 34.2 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 356 balls bowled.
Sample: 356 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Off break	287	155	3	51.67	54.01	70.4%	6.6%
Right-arm fast-medium	175	81	3	27.00	46.29	77.1%	6.3%
Leg break	153	112	3	37.33	73.20	63.4%	9.8%
Slow left-arm orthodox	99	60	1	60.00	60.61	66.7%	5.1%
Left-arm fast-medium	93	27	0	–	29.03	74.2%	1.1%
Right-arm medium	72	38	1	38.00	52.78	72.2%	6.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	481	271	5	54.20

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	296	110	3	36.67	2.23	98.7	80.7%	5.4%
Left-handed batters	102	61	2	30.50	3.59	51.0	67.6%	6.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	300	124	3	41.33	2.48	100.0	76.3%	4.7%