Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

DS Smith, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Spin: average of 10.1, 12.1 below their average of 22.2 on all balls faced (-55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 487 balls faced.
Sample: 487 balls · high confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 42, 7 below their balls per dismissal of 49 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 967 balls faced.
Sample: 967 balls · high confidence
Off break: average of 10.5, 11.7 below their average of 22.2 on all balls faced (-53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 356 balls faced.
Sample: 356 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 19.9, 2.3 below their average of 22.2 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 696 balls faced.
Sample: 696 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 35.4, 9.9 below their strike rate of 45.3 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 356 balls faced.
Sample: 356 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 29.1, 6.8 above their average of 22.2 on all balls faced (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 1969 balls faced.
Sample: 1,969 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 70, 20 above their balls per dismissal of 49 on all balls faced (+42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 696 balls faced.
Sample: 696 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 28.6, 6.4 above their average of 22.2 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1204 balls faced.
Sample: 1,204 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 30.1, 7.9 above their average of 22.2 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 479 balls faced.
Sample: 479 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): average of 23.3, 1.1 above their average of 22.2 on all balls faced (+5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 1760 balls faced.
Sample: 1,760 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 47.5, 2.2 above their strike rate of 45.3 on all balls faced (+5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1204 balls faced.
Sample: 1,204 balls · high confidence
Left-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 53.5, 8.3 above their strike rate of 45.3 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 198 balls faced.
Sample: 198 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	1,204	572	20	28.60	47.51	74.0%	6.1%
Right-arm fast	479	211	7	30.14	44.05	76.6%	6.3%
Off break	356	126	12	10.50	35.39	83.1%	5.1%
Left-arm fast-medium	198	106	4	26.50	53.54	72.2%	7.6%
Slow left-arm orthodox	87	33	5	6.60	37.93	74.7%	3.4%
Left-arm fast	65	39	1	39.00	60.00	75.4%	10.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
New ball (1-20)	1,760	793	34	23.32