Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

GD McGrath, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 34.9, 11.2 below their strike rate of 46.2 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 209 balls faced.
Sample: 209 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 16.4, 2.3 above their average of 14.1 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 274 balls faced.
Sample: 274 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 17.8, 3.7 above their average of 14.1 on all balls faced (+27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 256 balls faced.
Sample: 256 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 17.8, 3.7 above their average of 14.1 on all balls faced (+27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 256 balls faced.
Sample: 256 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Second new ball (81+): economy of 2.83, 0.42 above their economy of 2.41 on all balls bowled (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 871 balls bowled.
Sample: 871 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 58.1, 6.7 above their strike rate of 51.4 on all balls bowled (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 871 balls bowled.
Sample: 871 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 21.7, 1.1 above their average of 20.6 on all balls bowled (+5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 3159 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,159 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 32.4, 11.8 above their average of 20.6 on all balls bowled (+57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 546 balls bowled.
Sample: 546 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 52.0, 31.4 above their average of 20.6 on all balls bowled (+152%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 330 balls bowled.
Sample: 330 balls · low confidence
India: average of 52.0, 31.4 above their average of 20.6 on all balls bowled (+152%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 330 balls bowled.
Sample: 330 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

New ball (1-20): economy of 2.20, 0.20 below their economy of 2.41 on all balls bowled (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1908 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,908 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 18.6, 2.0 below their average of 20.6 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1566 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,566 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 48.9, 2.4 below their strike rate of 51.4 on all balls bowled (-5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1908 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,908 balls · high confidence
England: average of 17.1, 3.5 below their average of 20.6 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 529 balls bowled.
Sample: 529 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 17.6, 3.0 below their average of 20.6 on all balls bowled (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 456 balls bowled.
Sample: 456 balls · medium confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	209	73	5	14.60	34.93	78.5%	3.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	61	41	1	41.00	67.21	62.3%	8.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	317	140	8	17.50	44.16	73.2%	3.5%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,159	1,282	59	21.73	2.43	53.5	82.2%	6.0%
Left-handed batters	1,566	614	33	18.61	2.35	47.5	80.7%	4.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,946	784	38	20.63	2.42	51.2	82.4%	5.6%
New ball (1-20)	1,908	701	39	17.97	2.20	48.9	82.7%	4.6%
Second new ball (81+)	871	411	15	27.40	2.83	58.1	78.1%	7.1%