Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

JA Warrican, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Pace: average of 9.2, 3.4 below their average of 12.7 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 234 balls faced.
Sample: 234 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pakistan: average of 22.8, 10.1 above their average of 12.7 on all balls faced (+80%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 162 balls faced.
Sample: 162 balls · low confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 22.2, 9.6 above their average of 12.7 on all balls faced (+76%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 180 balls faced.
Sample: 180 balls · low confidence
Off break: strike rate of 64.1, 9.5 above their strike rate of 54.6 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 223 balls faced.
Sample: 223 balls · low confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 17.2, 4.5 above their average of 12.7 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 192 balls faced.
Sample: 192 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

New ball (1-20): economy of 3.51, 0.51 above their economy of 3.00 on all balls bowled (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 828 balls bowled.
Sample: 828 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 3.43, 0.43 above their economy of 3.00 on all balls bowled (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1559 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,559 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 36.1, 8.3 above their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (+30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 1449 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,449 balls · high confidence
India: average of 47.6, 19.8 above their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (+71%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1220 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,220 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 36.1, 8.3 above their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (+30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 1449 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,449 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 86.2, 58.4 above their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (+210%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 582 balls bowled.
Sample: 582 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 76.0, 48.2 above their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (+173%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 462 balls bowled.
Sample: 462 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 33.0, 5.2 above their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1559 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,559 balls · high confidence
India: average of 48.6, 20.8 above their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (+75%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 680 balls bowled.
Sample: 680 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Pakistan: average of 16.4, 11.4 below their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 932 balls bowled.
Sample: 932 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 2.83, 0.17 below their economy of 3.00 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1190 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,190 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: economy of 2.84, 0.17 below their economy of 3.00 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 3481 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,481 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 9.0, 18.8 below their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (-68%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 431 balls bowled.
Sample: 431 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 25.6, 2.2 below their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 3662 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,662 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 22.1, 5.7 below their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 1288 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,288 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 20.8, 7.1 below their average of 27.8 on all balls bowled (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 288 balls bowled.
Sample: 288 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Off break	223	143	10	14.30	64.13	70.4%	6.7%
Slow left-arm orthodox	180	89	4	22.25	49.44	73.9%	5.0%
Right-arm fast-medium	108	57	9	6.33	52.78	73.1%	6.5%
Right-arm fast	64	38	3	12.67	59.38	71.9%	9.4%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	453	248	21	11.81	54.75	71.1%	5.7%
Second new ball (81+)	192	103	6	17.17	53.65	75.5%	6.8%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,481	1,646	62	26.55	2.84	56.1	73.1%	4.8%
Left-handed batters	1,559	892	27	33.04	3.43	57.7	65.0%	5.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	3,093	1,511	55	27.47	2.93	56.2	70.7%	4.4%
Second new ball (81+)	1,190	562	23	24.43	2.83	51.7	73.3%	4.7%
New ball (1-20)	828	485	14	34.64	3.51	59.1	67.5%	6.6%