Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

JJ Bumrah, Men's Test

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 30.6, 10.7 below their strike rate of 41.3 on all balls faced (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 425 balls faced.
Sample: 425 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 5.9, 1.3 below their average of 7.2 on all balls faced (-18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 425 balls faced.
Sample: 425 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 5.2, 2.0 below their average of 7.2 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 245 balls faced.
Sample: 245 balls · medium confidence

England: average of 10.2, 2.9 above their average of 7.2 on all balls faced (+40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 474 balls faced.
Sample: 474 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 53.9, 12.6 above their strike rate of 41.3 on all balls faced (+30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 401 balls faced.
Sample: 401 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 10.0, 2.8 above their average of 7.2 on all balls faced (+38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 315 balls faced.
Sample: 315 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 11.2, 4.0 above their average of 7.2 on all balls faced (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 283 balls faced.
Sample: 283 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 44.9, 3.6 above their strike rate of 41.3 on all balls faced (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 245 balls faced.
Sample: 245 balls · medium confidence

New Zealand: average of 45.4, 25.7 above their average of 19.8 on all balls bowled (+130%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 836 balls bowled.
Sample: 836 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.14, 0.37 above their economy of 2.77 on all balls bowled (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1464 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,464 balls · high confidence
England: average of 26.2, 6.4 above their average of 19.8 on all balls bowled (+32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 2860 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,860 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 55.2, 12.3 above their strike rate of 42.9 on all balls bowled (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 3532 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,532 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 31.7, 11.9 above their average of 19.8 on all balls bowled (+60%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 370 balls bowled.
Sample: 370 balls · medium confidence

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 29.9, 13.0 below their strike rate of 42.9 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 1464 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,464 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 17.2, 2.6 below their average of 19.8 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 2557 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,557 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 17.2, 2.6 below their average of 19.8 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 2557 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,557 balls · high confidence
India: average of 17.7, 2.1 below their average of 19.8 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 2356 balls bowled.

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	245	110	21	5.24	44.90	78.4%	6.5%
Right-arm fast	195	89	13	6.85	45.64	78.5%	6.2%
Off break	149	42	5	8.40	28.19	80.5%	2.7%
Slow left-arm orthodox	99	31	2	15.50	31.31	84.8%	4.0%
Left-arm fast-medium	84	43	5	8.60	51.19	78.6%	9.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	425	130	22	5.91	30.59	84.2%	4.0%
Second new ball (81+)	401	216	25	8.64

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	6,114	2,866	151	18.98	2.81	40.5	77.4%	6.1%
Left-handed batters	3,917	1,765	83	21.27	2.70	47.2	77.4%	5.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	5,035	2,336	121	19.31	2.78	41.6	77.3%	5.9%
New ball (1-20)	3,532	1,529	64	23.89	2.60	55.2	79.3%	5.7%
Second new ball (81+)	1,464	766	49	15.63	3.14	29.9	73.5%	6.0%