Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

JL Denly, Men's Test

Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 62, 15 below their balls per dismissal of 77 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1124 balls faced.
Sample: 1,124 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 23.5, 7.2 below their average of 30.6 on all balls faced (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 879 balls faced.
Sample: 879 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 34.7, 4.9 below their strike rate of 39.6 on all balls faced (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 879 balls faced.
Sample: 879 balls · high confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 21.1, 18.5 below their strike rate of 39.6 on all balls faced (-47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 251 balls faced.
Sample: 251 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 27.2, 3.4 below their average of 30.6 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1395 balls faced.
Sample: 1,395 balls · high confidence

Right-arm fast: strike rate of 49.8, 10.2 above their strike rate of 39.6 on all balls faced (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 552 balls faced.
Sample: 552 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): average of 46.3, 15.7 above their average of 30.6 on all balls faced (+51%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 681 balls faced.
Sample: 681 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 206, 129 above their balls per dismissal of 77 on all balls faced (+167%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 413 balls faced.
Sample: 413 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 34.4, 3.7 above their average of 30.6 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 552 balls faced.
Sample: 552 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 52.0, 12.3 above their strike rate of 39.6 on all balls faced (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 204 balls faced.
Sample: 204 balls · low confidence

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 294.0, 99.0 above their strike rate of 195.0 on all balls bowled (+51%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 294 balls bowled.
Sample: 294 balls · low confidence

Away from home: average of 66.0, 43.5 below their average of 109.5 on all balls bowled (-40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 264 balls bowled.
Sample: 264 balls · low confidence

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	879	305	13	23.46	34.70	83.4%	4.8%
Right-arm fast	552	275	8	34.38	49.82	77.2%	7.6%
Slow left-arm orthodox	251	53	2	26.50	21.12	87.6%	2.4%
Off break	204	106	3	35.33	51.96	70.6%	5.9%
Left-arm fast-medium	137	53	1	53.00	38.69	81.8%	5.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,395	544	20	27.20	39.00	80.4%	5.2%
New ball (1-20)	681	278	6	46.33

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	250	151	0	–	3.62	–	64.4%	6.8%
Left-handed batters	140	68	2	34.00	2.91	70.0	72.9%	5.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	294	171	1	171.00	3.49	294.0	65.6%	6.1%
Second new ball (81+)	90	47	1	47.00	3.13	90.0	73.3%	6.7%