Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

JR Hazlewood, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Spin: average of 8.8, 2.7 below their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 552 balls faced.
Sample: 552 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 8.7, 2.8 below their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 519 balls faced.
Sample: 519 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 34.1, 9.9 below their strike rate of 44.0 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 302 balls faced.
Sample: 302 balls · medium confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 6.7, 4.8 below their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 185 balls faced.
Sample: 185 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 13.6, 2.1 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 781 balls faced.
Sample: 781 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 46.8, 2.9 above their strike rate of 44.0 on all balls faced (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 519 balls faced.
Sample: 519 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 14.7, 3.2 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 799 balls faced.
Sample: 799 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 12.9, 1.5 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 559 balls faced.
Sample: 559 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 16.6, 5.1 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+44%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 290 balls faced.
Sample: 290 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 53.8, 9.8 above their strike rate of 44.0 on all balls faced (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 266 balls faced.
Sample: 266 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 14.7, 3.2 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 401 balls faced.
Sample: 401 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 14.3, 2.8 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 266 balls faced.
Sample: 266 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.15, 0.36 above their economy of 2.79 on all balls bowled (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 3124 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,124 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 33.8, 9.7 above their average of 24.1 on all balls bowled (+40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1457 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,457 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 32.7, 8.6 above their average of 24.1 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 508 balls bowled.
Sample: 508 balls · medium confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 32.7, 8.6 above their average of 24.1 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 508 balls bowled.
Sample: 508 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

West Indies: average of 11.8, 12.3 below their average of 24.1 on all balls bowled (-51%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 743 balls bowled.
Sample: 743 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 2.41, 0.39 below their economy of 2.79 on all balls bowled (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 5168 balls bowled.
Sample: 5,168 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 15.4, 8.7 below their average of 24.1 on all balls bowled (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 1904 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,904 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 22.3, 1.8 below their average of 24.1 on all balls bowled (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 8937 balls bowled.
Sample: 8,937 balls · high confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	401	191	13	14.69	47.63	77.6%	7.2%
Off break	302	103	10	10.30	34.11	85.8%	5.6%
Right-arm fast	266	143	10	14.30	53.76	74.8%	7.9%
Slow left-arm orthodox	185	67	10	6.70	36.22	80.0%	3.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	799	339	23	14.74	42.43	79.2%	6.0%
Old ball (21-80)	519	243	28	8.68	46.82	78.6%	7.3%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	11,318	5,184	222	23.35	2.75	51.0	78.4%	5.9%
Left-handed batters	4,896	2,361	91	25.95	2.89	53.8	76.2%	6.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	7,922	3,831	144	26.60	2.90	55.0	77.1%	6.3%
New ball (1-20)	5,168	2,072	94	22.04	2.41	55.0	80.6%	4.7%
Second new ball (81+)	3,124	1,642	75	21.89	3.15	41.7	74.7%	7.1%