Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

KD Mills, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 34.4, 5.4 below their strike rate of 39.8 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 273 balls faced.
Sample: 273 balls · medium confidence
Pace: average of 11.0, 2.1 below their average of 13.1 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 399 balls faced.
Sample: 399 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 29.3, 10.5 below their strike rate of 39.8 on all balls faced (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 184 balls faced.
Sample: 184 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 7.7, 5.4 below their average of 13.1 on all balls faced (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 184 balls faced.
Sample: 184 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 10.9, 2.2 below their average of 13.1 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 212 balls faced.
Sample: 212 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Away from home: average of 15.4, 2.2 above their average of 13.1 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 315 balls faced.
Sample: 315 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 16.0, 2.9 above their average of 13.1 on all balls faced (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 283 balls faced.
Sample: 283 balls · medium confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 37, 4 above their balls per dismissal of 33 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 221 balls faced.
Sample: 221 balls · low confidence
England: average of 15.6, 2.5 above their average of 13.1 on all balls faced (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 194 balls faced.
Sample: 194 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Right-handed batters: average of 33.3, 2.5 above their average of 30.8 on all balls bowled (+8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1170 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,170 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.63, 0.58 above their economy of 3.05 on all balls bowled (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 400 balls bowled.
Sample: 400 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Old ball (21-80): economy of 2.77, 0.28 below their economy of 3.05 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 889 balls bowled.
Sample: 889 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 55.6, 5.0 below their strike rate of 60.6 on all balls bowled (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 889 balls bowled.
Sample: 889 balls · high confidence
England: average of 25.8, 5.0 below their average of 30.8 on all balls bowled (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 934 balls bowled.
Sample: 934 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 27.9, 2.9 below their average of 30.8 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 30% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 889 balls bowled.
Sample: 889 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 22.4, 8.4 below their average of 30.8 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 348 balls bowled.
Sample: 348 balls · low confidence
South Africa: average of 22.4, 8.4 below their average of 30.8 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 348 balls bowled.
Sample: 348 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	184	54	7	7.71	29.35	82.1%	2.7%
Left-arm fast-medium	108	41	3	13.67	37.96	78.7%	5.6%
Slow left-arm orthodox	96	48	2	24.00	50.00	78.1%	7.3%
Right-arm fast	68	38	2	19.00	55.88	79.4%	11.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	273	94	8	11.75	34.43	81.7%	5.1%
Second new ball (81+)	252	116	7	16.57	46.03	76.6%	6.3%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,170	600	18	33.33	3.08	65.0	78.2%	7.3%
Left-handed batters	889	447	16	27.94	3.02	55.6	77.8%	7.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	889	411	16	25.69	2.77	55.6	80.0%	6.2%
New ball (1-20)	770	394	11	35.82	3.07	70.0	77.4%	7.3%
Second new ball (81+)	400	242	7	34.57	3.63	57.1	75.0%	9.5%