Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

KJ Abbott, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 20.3, 7.8 below their strike rate of 28.1 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 232 balls faced.
Sample: 232 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 5.9, 1.4 below their average of 7.3 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 232 balls faced.
Sample: 232 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 9.0, 1.7 above their average of 7.3 on all balls faced (+23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 219 balls faced.
Sample: 219 balls · low confidence
South Africa: average of 8.1, 0.8 above their average of 7.3 on all balls faced (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 221 balls faced.
Sample: 221 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Old ball (21-80): economy of 2.88, 0.33 above their economy of 2.55 on all balls bowled (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1030 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,030 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 125.3, 72.0 above their strike rate of 53.4 on all balls bowled (+135%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 752 balls bowled.
Sample: 752 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 29.4, 6.7 above their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 1315 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,315 balls · high confidence
England: average of 87.0, 64.3 above their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (+283%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 400 balls bowled.
Sample: 400 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 29.4, 6.7 above their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1315 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,315 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 31.2, 8.5 above their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 389 balls bowled.
Sample: 389 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 39.6, 13.7 below their strike rate of 53.4 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1030 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,030 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 15.7, 7.0 below their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (-31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 766 balls bowled.
Sample: 766 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 2.26, 0.30 below their economy of 2.55 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 752 balls bowled.
Sample: 752 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 14.8, 7.9 below their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 449 balls bowled.
Sample: 449 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 20.1, 2.6 below their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 701 balls bowled.
Sample: 701 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 2.17, 0.39 below their economy of 2.55 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 299 balls bowled.
Sample: 299 balls · low confidence
India: average of 17.5, 5.2 below their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 317 balls bowled.
Sample: 317 balls · low confidence
India: average of 17.5, 5.2 below their average of 22.7 on all balls bowled (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 317 balls bowled.
Sample: 317 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	120	30	5	6.00	25.00	88.3%	2.5%
Off break	62	15	5	3.00	24.19	87.1%	3.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	232	47	8	5.88	20.26	89.2%	1.7%
Second new ball (81+)	106	48	5	9.60	45.28	80.2%	6.6%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,377	586	28	20.93	2.55	49.2	81.1%	6.0%
Left-handed batters	704	300	11	27.27	2.56	64.0	78.8%	5.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,030	495	26	19.04	2.88	39.6	78.8%	6.4%
New ball (1-20)	752	283	6	47.17	2.26	125.3	81.8%	4.7%
Second new ball (81+)	299	108	7	15.43	2.17	42.7	81.9%	5.4%