Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

KM Jarvis, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Second new ball (81+): average of 7.2, 1.9 below their average of 9.1 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 179 balls faced.
Sample: 179 balls · low confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 20, 7 below their balls per dismissal of 27 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 221 balls faced.
Sample: 221 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

At home: average of 12.3, 3.2 above their average of 9.1 on all balls faced (+35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 247 balls faced.
Sample: 247 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Zimbabwe: average of 35.0, 5.6 above their average of 29.4 on all balls bowled (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 1575 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,575 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 35.0, 5.6 above their average of 29.4 on all balls bowled (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 1575 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,575 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 33.0, 3.6 above their average of 29.4 on all balls bowled (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1809 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,809 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 88.3, 33.7 above their strike rate of 54.6 on all balls bowled (+62%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 618 balls bowled.
Sample: 618 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 40.3, 10.9 above their average of 29.4 on all balls bowled (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 472 balls bowled.
Sample: 472 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.57, 0.34 above their economy of 3.23 on all balls bowled (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 618 balls bowled.
Sample: 618 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Away from home: average of 22.8, 6.7 below their average of 29.4 on all balls bowled (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 937 balls bowled.
Sample: 937 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): economy of 3.03, 0.20 below their economy of 3.23 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 981 balls bowled.
Sample: 981 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 49.0, 5.6 below their strike rate of 54.6 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 981 balls bowled.
Sample: 981 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 48.1, 6.6 below their strike rate of 54.6 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 913 balls bowled.
Sample: 913 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 15.5, 13.9 below their average of 29.4 on all balls bowled (-47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 384 balls bowled.
Sample: 384 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 23.3, 6.1 below their average of 29.4 on all balls bowled (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 703 balls bowled.
Sample: 703 balls · medium confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Off break	136	40	4	10.00	29.41	83.1%	2.2%
Right-arm fast-medium	114	41	5	8.20	35.96	83.3%	5.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	181	62	6	10.33	34.25	82.3%	4.4%
Second new ball (81+)	179	58	8	7.25	32.40	81.6%	2.8%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,809	958	29	33.03	3.18	62.4	74.8%	6.1%
Left-handed batters	703	396	17	23.29	3.38	41.4	73.3%	7.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	981	496	20	24.80	3.03	49.0	75.3%	5.6%
New ball (1-20)	913	490	19	25.79	3.22	48.1	74.9%	6.7%
Second new ball (81+)	618	368	7	52.57	3.57	88.3	72.2%	7.8%