Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

KMDN Kulasekara, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

At home: average of 13.9, 1.2 below their average of 15.0 on all balls faced (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 539 balls faced.
Sample: 539 balls · high confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 26, 9 below their balls per dismissal of 36 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 235 balls faced.
Sample: 235 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 34.0, 8.3 below their strike rate of 42.3 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 268 balls faced.
Sample: 268 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 51.9, 9.6 above their strike rate of 42.3 on all balls faced (+23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 322 balls faced.
Sample: 322 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 46.4, 4.1 above their strike rate of 42.3 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 304 balls faced.
Sample: 304 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 51, 16 above their balls per dismissal of 36 on all balls faced (+44%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 359 balls faced.
Sample: 359 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 16.9, 1.9 above their average of 15.0 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 386 balls faced.
Sample: 386 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 20.1, 5.1 above their average of 15.0 on all balls faced (+34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 395 balls faced.
Sample: 395 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 17.7, 2.6 above their average of 15.0 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 228 balls faced.
Sample: 228 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Away from home: average of 163.7, 127.4 above their average of 36.3 on all balls bowled (+351%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 834 balls bowled.
Sample: 834 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 165.4, 94.1 above their strike rate of 71.3 on all balls bowled (+132%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1158 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,158 balls · high confidence
England: average of 141.0, 104.7 above their average of 36.3 on all balls bowled (+289%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 450 balls bowled.
Sample: 450 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 141.0, 104.7 above their average of 36.3 on all balls bowled (+289%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 450 balls bowled.
Sample: 450 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 121.5, 85.2 above their average of 36.3 on all balls bowled (+235%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 318 balls bowled.
Sample: 318 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Pakistan: average of 22.4, 13.9 below their average of 36.3 on all balls bowled (-38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1414 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,414 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 27.6, 8.7 below their average of 36.3 on all balls bowled (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 2517 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,517 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 46.1, 25.2 below their strike rate of 71.3 on all balls bowled (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 783 balls bowled.
Sample: 783 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 27.6, 8.7 below their average of 36.3 on all balls bowled (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 2517 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	322	167	11	15.18	51.86	78.0%	7.8%
Off break	268	91	6	15.17	33.96	82.1%	4.5%
Left-arm fast-medium	79	33	3	11.00	41.77	79.7%	6.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	71	28	0	–	39.44	84.5%	5.6%
Right-arm fast	64	27	1	27.00	42.19	75.0%	6.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	621	250	17	14.71	40.26	80.7%	5.5%
Old ball (21-80)	304	141	9	15.67

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,360	1,213	33	36.76	3.08	71.5	73.3%	6.4%
Left-handed batters	991	492	14	35.14	2.98	70.8	74.7%	6.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
New ball (1-20)	1,410	712	23	30.96	3.03	61.3	75.1%	6.3%
Old ball (21-80)	1,158	580	7	82.86	3.01	165.4	74.3%	6.3%
Second new ball (81+)	783	413	17	24.29	3.16	46.1	70.4%	6.0%