Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

L Ngidi, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

No batting weakness clears the thresholds in this format.

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 48.8, 6.6 above their strike rate of 42.2 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 164 balls faced.
Sample: 164 balls · low confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 13, 1 above their balls per dismissal of 12 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 214 balls faced.
Sample: 214 balls · low confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 6.2, 1.0 above their average of 5.1 on all balls faced (+21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 164 balls faced.
Sample: 164 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

New ball (1-20): strike rate of 88.2, 43.8 above their strike rate of 44.4 on all balls bowled (+98%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 882 balls bowled.
Sample: 882 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 35.8, 12.5 above their average of 23.4 on all balls bowled (+53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1237 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,237 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 28.1, 4.8 above their average of 23.4 on all balls bowled (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 30% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 766 balls bowled.
Sample: 766 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 31.6, 8.2 above their average of 23.4 on all balls bowled (+35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 464 balls bowled.
Sample: 464 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 34.2, 10.8 above their average of 23.4 on all balls bowled (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 306 balls bowled.
Sample: 306 balls · low confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.64, 0.49 above their economy of 3.16 on all balls bowled (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 242 balls bowled.
Sample: 242 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 34.6, 9.8 below their strike rate of 44.4 on all balls bowled (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1454 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,454 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 17.3, 6.1 below their average of 23.4 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 1341 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,341 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 17.3, 6.1 below their average of 23.4 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1341 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,341 balls · high confidence
India: average of 18.3, 5.1 below their average of 23.4 on all balls bowled (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 978 balls bowled.
Sample: 978 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 2.80, 0.35 below their economy of 3.16 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 882 balls bowled.
Sample: 882 balls · high confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	73	30	7	4.29	41.10	84.9%	6.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	164	80	13	6.15	48.78	81.1%	7.9%
Second new ball (81+)	66	17	6	2.83	25.76	84.8%	3.0%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,812	934	43	21.72	3.09	42.1	77.2%	7.5%
Left-handed batters	766	422	15	28.13	3.31	51.1	72.6%	8.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,454	797	42	18.98	3.29	34.6	74.8%	8.3%
New ball (1-20)	882	412	10	41.20	2.80	88.2	78.7%	6.2%
Second new ball (81+)	242	147	6	24.50	3.64	40.3	71.1%	8.7%