Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

LR Johnson, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

New ball (1-20): strike rate of 41.8, 6.7 below their strike rate of 48.4 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 493 balls faced.
Sample: 493 balls · high confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 43, 9 below their balls per dismissal of 52 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 347 balls faced.
Sample: 347 balls · medium confidence
Spin: average of 14.3, 10.9 below their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (-43%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 212 balls faced.
Sample: 212 balls · low confidence
Pakistan: average of 16.0, 9.2 below their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 210 balls faced.
Sample: 210 balls · low confidence
United Arab Emirates: average of 16.0, 9.2 below their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 210 balls faced.
Sample: 210 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 33.7, 8.5 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 620 balls faced.
Sample: 620 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 58.1, 9.7 above their strike rate of 48.4 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 339 balls faced.
Sample: 339 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 49.7, 24.5 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+97%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 317 balls faced.
Sample: 317 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 33.6, 8.4 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 291 balls faced.
Sample: 291 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 33.6, 8.4 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 291 balls faced.
Sample: 291 balls · medium confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 71, 19 above their balls per dismissal of 52 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 212 balls faced.
Sample: 212 balls · low confidence
Bangladesh: average of 53.5, 28.3 above their average of 25.2 on all balls faced (+112%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +22%) — 221 balls faced.
Sample: 221 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	317	149	3	49.67	47.00	76.3%	6.6%
Right-arm fast	147	89	3	29.67	60.54	73.5%	8.2%
Slow left-arm orthodox	83	44	2	22.00	53.01	73.5%	7.2%
Left-arm fast-medium	81	30	2	15.00	37.04	84.0%	7.4%
Off break	76	33	2	16.50	43.42	78.9%	5.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
New ball (1-20)	493	206	9	22.89	41.78	78.1%	5.9%
Old ball (21-80)	339	197	7	28.14