Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

M Jansen, Men's Test

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 51.4, 7.4 below their strike rate of 58.8 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1002 balls faced.
Sample: 1,002 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 35.0, 23.8 below their strike rate of 58.8 on all balls faced (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 263 balls faced.
Sample: 263 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 20.3, 5.4 below their average of 25.7 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 475 balls faced.
Sample: 475 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 15.4, 10.3 below their average of 25.7 on all balls faced (-40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 264 balls faced.
Sample: 264 balls · medium confidence

South Africa: average of 28.6, 3.0 above their average of 25.7 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 708 balls faced.
Sample: 708 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 79.7, 20.9 above their strike rate of 58.8 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 360 balls faced.
Sample: 360 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 37.2, 11.6 above their average of 25.7 on all balls faced (+45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 242 balls faced.
Sample: 242 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 29.0, 3.3 above their average of 25.7 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 385 balls faced.
Sample: 385 balls · medium confidence

Left-handed batters: average of 26.3, 5.4 above their average of 21.0 on all balls bowled (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1519 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,519 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 55.5, 16.4 above their strike rate of 39.1 on all balls bowled (+42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 555 balls bowled.
Sample: 555 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 50.0, 29.0 above their average of 21.0 on all balls bowled (+139%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 372 balls bowled.
Sample: 372 balls · medium confidence
Pakistan: average of 29.5, 8.5 above their average of 21.0 on all balls bowled (+41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 513 balls bowled.
Sample: 513 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 28.6, 7.6 above their average of 21.0 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 449 balls bowled.
Sample: 449 balls · medium confidence

India: average of 15.7, 5.2 below their average of 21.0 on all balls bowled (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1167 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,167 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 18.6, 2.3 below their average of 21.0 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 2473 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,473 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 36.6, 2.5 below their strike rate of 39.1 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1355 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,355 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 2.99, 0.22 below their economy of 3.21 on all balls bowled (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1355 balls bowled.

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	475	264	13	20.31	55.58	71.8%	8.4%
Off break	263	92	3	30.67	34.98	79.8%	4.2%
Right-arm fast	242	149	4	37.25	61.57	70.7%	10.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	127	111	3	37.00	87.40	62.2%	11.8%
Right-arm medium	111	79	2	39.50	71.17	73.0%	11.7%
Left-arm fast	75	55	2	27.50	73.33	66.7%	12.0%
Left-arm fast-medium	74	43	2	21.50	58.11	74.3%	8.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,473	1,321	71	18.61	3.21	34.8	75.4%	7.5%
Left-handed batters	1,519	816	31	26.32	3.22	49.0	72.8%	7.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	2,082	1,155	55	21.00	3.33	37.9	72.9%	7.2%
New ball (1-20)	1,355	676	37	18.27	2.99	36.6	78.2%	7.7%
Second new ball (81+)	555	306	10	30.60	3.31	55.5	71.0%	6.7%

Old ball (21-80)	1,002	515	21	24.52	51.40	74.3%	7.5%
Second new ball (81+)	360	287	9	31.89	79.72	65.0%	12.5%