Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

M Ntini, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Spin: average of 6.9, 3.1 below their average of 10.0 on all balls faced (-31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 275 balls faced.
Sample: 275 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 7.6, 2.4 below their average of 10.0 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 308 balls faced.
Sample: 308 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 16, 6 below their balls per dismissal of 23 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 231 balls faced.
Sample: 231 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 12.9, 2.9 above their average of 10.0 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 574 balls faced.
Sample: 574 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 12.8, 2.8 above their average of 10.0 on all balls faced (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 541 balls faced.
Sample: 541 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 25, 2 above their balls per dismissal of 23 on all balls faced (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 576 balls faced.
Sample: 576 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 13.2, 3.2 above their average of 10.0 on all balls faced (+32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 409 balls faced.
Sample: 409 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Away from home: average of 38.0, 8.9 above their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 5697 balls bowled.
Sample: 5,697 balls · high confidence
England: average of 41.3, 12.3 above their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (+42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 2412 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,412 balls · high confidence
England: average of 41.3, 12.2 above their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (+42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1730 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,730 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 44.8, 15.7 above their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (+54%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 919 balls bowled.
Sample: 919 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 45.0, 15.9 above their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 791 balls bowled.
Sample: 791 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 32.1, 3.0 above their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 1338 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,338 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 34.1, 5.0 above their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 5098 balls bowled.
Sample: 5,098 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.57, 0.25 above their economy of 3.32 on all balls bowled (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 2731 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,731 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 42.3, 13.2 above their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 491 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	409	171	13	13.15	41.81	78.0%	6.4%
Off break	124	49	6	8.17	39.52	82.3%	6.5%
Leg break	84	41	8	5.13	48.81	76.2%	6.0%
Slow left-arm orthodox	60	26	4	6.50	43.33	80.0%	3.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	684	304	25	12.16	44.44	78.1%	6.4%
Old ball (21-80)	165	66	12	5.50	40.00	78.8%	4.8%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	6,738	3,853	146	26.39	3.43	46.2	73.8%	8.1%
Left-handed batters	5,098	2,692	79	34.08	3.17	64.5	75.8%	7.6%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	5,025	2,792	96	29.08	3.33	52.3	73.7%	7.7%
New ball (1-20)	4,080	2,130	76	28.03	3.13	53.7	77.6%	7.8%
Second new ball (81+)	2,731	1,623	53	30.62	3.57	51.5	72.1%	8.6%

Batting against them: where they are strongest

At home: average of 23.1, 6.0 below their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 5941 balls bowled.
Sample: 5,941 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 23.1, 6.0 below their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 5941 balls bowled.
Sample: 5,941 balls · high confidence
India: average of 26.0, 3.1 below their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1566 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,566 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 23.6, 5.5 below their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1619 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,619 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 26.4, 2.7 below their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 6738 balls bowled.
Sample: 6,738 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 3.17, 0.15 below their economy of 3.32 on all balls bowled (-5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 5098 balls bowled.
Sample: 5,098 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 15.1, 14.0 below their average of 29.1 on all balls bowled (-48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 612 balls bowled.
Sample: 612 balls · medium confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 3.13, 0.19 below their economy of 3.32 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 4080 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,080 balls · high confidence