Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

MD Craig, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Spin: average of 23.8, 15.5 below their average of 39.3 on all balls faced (-39%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 458 balls faced.
Sample: 458 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 32.7, 6.6 below their average of 39.3 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 536 balls faced.
Sample: 536 balls · high confidence
Off break: average of 20.4, 18.9 below their average of 39.3 on all balls faced (-48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 211 balls faced.
Sample: 211 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 62.5, 23.2 above their average of 39.3 on all balls faced (+59%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 625 balls faced.
Sample: 625 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 49.2, 9.9 above their average of 39.3 on all balls faced (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 547 balls faced.
Sample: 547 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 63.5, 9.1 above their strike rate of 54.4 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 364 balls faced.
Sample: 364 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 64.0, 24.7 above their average of 39.3 on all balls faced (+63%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 273 balls faced.
Sample: 273 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 64.0, 24.7 above their average of 39.3 on all balls faced (+63%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 273 balls faced.
Sample: 273 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 46.2, 6.9 above their average of 39.3 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 364 balls faced.
Sample: 364 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Right-handed batters: economy of 4.17, 0.37 above their economy of 3.80 on all balls bowled (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 2254 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,254 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 86.0, 12.6 above their strike rate of 73.4 on all balls bowled (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 2493 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,493 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 66.6, 20.1 above their average of 46.5 on all balls bowled (+43%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 824 balls bowled.
Sample: 824 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Left-handed batters: economy of 3.22, 0.59 below their economy of 3.80 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1415 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,415 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 51.4, 22.0 below their strike rate of 73.4 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 720 balls bowled.
Sample: 720 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 3.03, 0.78 below their economy of 3.80 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 456 balls bowled.
Sample: 456 balls · medium confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 32.7, 13.9 below their average of 46.5 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 451 balls bowled.
Sample: 451 balls · medium confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 65.1, 8.2 below their strike rate of 73.4 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 456 balls bowled.
Sample: 456 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 42.0, 4.5 below their average of 46.5 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 623 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	364	231	5	46.20	63.46	72.8%	9.3%
Off break	211	102	5	20.40	48.34	73.0%	5.2%
Slow left-arm orthodox	141	49	2	24.50	34.75	77.3%	2.8%
Leg break	106	63	2	31.50	59.43	57.5%	4.7%
Right-arm fast	100	59	1	59.00	59.00	76.0%	10.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	547	295	6	49.17	53.93	71.1%	7.1%
Old ball (21-80)	536	294	9	32.67

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,254	1,567	35	44.77	4.17	64.4	66.7%	9.2%
Left-handed batters	1,415	759	15	50.60	3.22	94.3	73.8%	7.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	2,493	1,631	29	56.24	3.93	86.0	68.7%	8.8%
Second new ball (81+)	720	465	14	33.21	3.88	51.4	68.8%	8.1%
New ball (1-20)	456	230	7	32.86	3.03	65.1	74.6%	6.6%