Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

MG Neser, Men's Test

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 40.5, 10.4 below their strike rate of 51.0 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 185 balls faced.
Sample: 185 balls · low confidence

Pace: average of 21.7, 3.0 above their average of 18.7 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 241 balls faced.
Sample: 241 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 23.2, 4.5 above their average of 18.7 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 171 balls faced.
Sample: 171 balls · low confidence

New ball (1-20): economy of 3.65, 0.44 above their economy of 3.21 on all balls bowled (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 294 balls bowled.
Sample: 294 balls · low confidence

No bowling strength clears the thresholds in this format.

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	171	93	4	23.25	54.39	74.3%	8.8%
Right-arm fast	70	37	2	18.50	52.86	72.9%	7.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	185	75	4	18.75	40.54	80.0%	6.5%

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	560	298	17	17.53	3.19	32.9	73.2%	5.7%
Left-handed batters	218	118	5	23.60	3.25	43.6	72.0%	6.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	439	225	11	20.45	3.08	39.9	72.4%	5.7%
New ball (1-20)	294	179	8	22.38	3.65	36.8	72.1%	6.5%